MLB PrizePicks for Tuesday, April 11, Featuring Willy Adames, Luis Robert Jr.
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Willy Adames
We have a stacked 15-game slate of baseball on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks. A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Jesse Winker More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Milwaukee Brewers in the second installment of a three-game series between two first-place teams. Slated to take the mound for Arizona is right-hander Merrill Kelly, who should be a good fade candidate.
Through two starts this season, he is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. While those numbers are not necessarily terrible, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is extremely unlikely.
Thus far in 2023, Kelly ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and BB%. The first Milwaukee hitter to back in this contest is DH Jesse Winker, who typically hits in the two-spot for the Crew when facing right-handers.
Since 2021, Winker's splits take approximately a 21% jump when facing right-handed pitching, boasting a .277 BA, .468 SLG and .849 OPS over that stretch. Putting together a solid campaign since joining the Brewers over the offseason, he possesses a .308/385/.772 slash line.
This strong start to the year is likely to continue against the struggling Kelly, a right-hander whom Winker is 1-for-3 in his career against with a triple.
Willy Adames Hitter Fantasy Score More Than 6.5
In a play with some solid correlation, we are going to take the player projected to bat directly behind Winker in the batting order to record more than 6.5 hitter fantasy points. Once again bolstering the middle of Milwaukee's lineup, Willy Adames is off to yet another good start in 2023.
Through 10 games, he boasts a .306 BA, .500 SLG and .881 OPS. Like Winker, Adames' splits improve when facing right-handers.
Since 2021, his numbers jump by roughly 11% when facing right-handed pitching, producing a .260 BA, .490 SLG, and .811 OPS over that span. Through 12 career plate appearances against Kelly, Adames boasts a dominating .417 BA, .667 SLG and .461 wOBA.
His metrics over those 12 plate appearances suggest that regression is unlikely, posting a .378 xBA, .636 xSLG and .437 xwOBA.
Luis Robert Jr. Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 7.5
There is an AL Central divisional showdown on Tuesday evening with the Minnesota Twins hosting the Chicago White Sox. Slated to take the mound for Minnesota is right-hander Pablo Lopez, who should be a good candidate to back in this matchup.
Lopez is 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.73 WHIP through two starts. While those surface-level stats are tremendous, his underlying metrics are just as strong.
Thus far in 2023, Lopez ranks in the 86th percentile or higher in Avg Exit Velocity, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, K% and Whiff%. The first Chicago hitter to fade in this contest is outfielder Luis Robert Jr.
While Robert is off to a monstrous start this season, now is the perfect time to sell high against the dominant Lopez. Since 2021, Robert's splits take approximately a 45% decrease when facing right-handed pitching.
Additionally, Robert has never faced Lopez in his career, so it may take a few turns through the batting order to figure him out, especially due to his unorthodox sweeper that opposing hitters just cannot figure out.
Yoan Moncada Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
The other White Sox hitter to fade in this contest is Yoan Moncada. Like Robert, Moncada is off to a strong start this year, which is why his PrizePick entry is so high despite facing Lopez.
However, also like Robert, it will likely take Moncada a few at-bats to figure out Lopez's unique pitching, a guy he has never seen on the mound before. Not to sound like a broken record, but the last similarity that Moncada and Robert share is their decreased splits when facing right-handed pitching, albeit Moncada's is only by a couple of percentage points.
Since 2021, he possesses an underwhelming .242 BA, .393 SLG and .724 OPS when facing right-handed pitching. Despite Moncada's strong splits to begin 2023, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming, which should come to fruition against Lopez.
This season, Moncada ranks in the 43rd percentile or lower in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, K%, BB% and Whiff%.
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