MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Strikeout Bets for Alex Wood & Ryan Feltner (Wednesday, August 31)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco Giants pitcher Alex Wood
Although Shane McClanahan was scratched yesterday, the other two picks in Tuesday’s edition of this column cashed (Mitch Keller o3.5, Logan Webb o3.5). That means The Action Network’s MLB Player Props team is up about 12 units in August.
Using our internal projections, I’ve found two more winners to close out our month strong.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Alex Wood Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Padres @ Giants|
|First Pitch||3:45 p.m. ET|
I like betting on Alex Wood. His 5.00 ERA undervalues him in the betting markets because his xERA is 3.96 and his xFIP is 3.44. Wood has been unlucky all season and needs to find some regression eventually.
That hasn’t really affected his strikeout numbers, however. Wood was more of a pitch-to-contact guy early in his career, but he started putting up monster numbers once he reached the West Coast. He’s on pace to post more than 9 K/9 for the third straight season.
Most soft-tossing right-handed sinkerballers tend to pitch to weak contact. Wood has started doing something different, however, making his sinker a put-away pitch.
The Padres fair poorly against fastballs. If you combine their Weighted Fastball Runs Created with their Sinker Fastball Runs Created, you get a whopping -19.1. That’s a good sign for Wood today.
But Wood has always performed against the Padres. In four starts this season, Wood has posted lines of:
- 4/11: 86 pitches, 33% CSW, 6 Ks
- 5/22: 73 pitches, 30% CSW, 4 Ks
- 7/10: 83 pitches, 35% CSW, 8 Ks
- 8/8: 89 pitches, 28% CSW, 5 Ks
Wood’s ability to post all those strikeouts on so few pitches is staggering. If he gets 80 pitches tonight, this bet is essentially a lock.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Wood for 5.4 strikeouts, giving us plenty of value on these short odds.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-110)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
|Rockies @ Braves|
|First Pitch||7:20 p.m. ET|
I’ve faded Ryan Feltner in this column before, and I’ve done so very successfully.
The Rockies continue to throw him out there because they need any kind of pitching depth. The Rockies’ Minor League organizational pitching depth is almost nonexistent. They have three pitchers among their top-11 prospects, none of which is past Low-A ball and none of which cracks MLB Pipeline’s top-100 prospects.
So, the Rox are going to try to develop Feltner into a back-end rotational piece. It’s not working, and I’m not sure if it will. He pairs a 5.87 ERA with a 5.73 xERA, and none of his stuff is particularly overwhelming.
I don’t mean to drag a 25-year-old rookie pitcher, and there’s still hope he can develop his fastball (which he’s allowed a .623 SLG on this season). However, he’s in over his head, and I’m ready to fade him again.
Feltner has failed to cash over 3.5 Ks in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s faced the Braves twice in his career, piling up a measly three strikeouts over almost 140 pitches with a CSW rate around 25%. The only guy on the current Braves roster whom he’s struck out is William Contreras, who fanned twice in two tries.
Otherwise, the rest of the team is batting .412 with a .765 slugging against Feltner in 21 PAs.
The Braves are strikeout-happy, but they are the hardest-hitting team in baseball, leading the league in barrels. Feltner allows a 10% barrel rate. What’s the probability he even gets to 90 pitches here?
I’m out on Feltner. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects him for 3.4 strikeouts today, making the under a good plus-money value bet.
Pick: Under 3.5 Ks (+120)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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