MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Patrick Sandoval and Alek Manoah (Wednesday, September 7)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Alek Manoah #6 of the Toronto Blue Jays.
- Tonight's MLB slate is loaded with value from a player props perspective.
- Our analyst has found value on a pair of arms — Patrick Sandoval and Alek Manoah — throwing tonight with favorable odds on their strikeout props.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our favorite player props from tonight in Major League Baseball.
NFL returns tomorrow, which means you only have one more day of sweating out bullpens before football is consistently back for good.
Celebrate that by betting these two pitcher props that our internal projections are uber-high on today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
|Tigers vs. Angels||Angels -200|
|First Pitch||4:07 p.m. ET|
I'm really impressed with the season Patrick Sandoval has put together. He's been the Halos' best pitcher outside of Shohei, even if he's slightly overperformed.
The southpaw is one of the heaviest slider-reliant pitchers in the game. He's really pushed his slider this season.
And it's worked. Sandoval has posted a -8 Run Value on the pitch. His Whiff rate on the slider is around 35%, and his whiff rate on that secondary changeup is a whopping 45%.
As a result, Sandoval is striking out over nine batters per nine innings.
Sandoval hasn't consistently cashed this number, but he's abused the Tigers in the past. The Tigers strike out about 23% of the time against lefties, but Sandoval has posted lines of:
- 6/19/2021: 5.2 IP, 81 pitches, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 36% CSW, 9 Ks
- 8/19/2022: 9.0 IP, 97 pitches, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 39% CSW, 9 Ks
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Sandoval for seven strikeouts today, giving us more than enough value to hammer this line.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-135)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Alek Manoah Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|Blue Jays vs. Orioles||Blue Jays -145|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
Alek Manoah is putting together another gem of a season. He'll be atop the Blue Jays lineup for a very long time.
Similar to Sandoval, Manoah throws a lot of sliders. However, he mainly throws sliders off his big-boy fastball, which has recorded a -16 Run Value this season. Either way, Manoah has forced a Whiff rate of 30% on the two pitches combined.
Alek Manoah, Wicked 84mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/k9GRpQCAJ9
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 2, 2022
Manoah's strikeout rate is down this season, but he's starting light it up. He's cashed this 5.5 number in four consecutive starts, compiling 28 strikeouts during the stretch.
Plus, Manoah has never had a problem with the Orioles. In six lifetime starts against the O's, Manoah has picked up over 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched (41 Ks in 33 IP). He's fanned seven Birds in two separate outings this season, and has posted a lifetime 30% CSW rate against Baltimore.
Manoah looks ready for this start, too.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Manoah at 7.3 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 6.0.
But we get to bet this line at even money on BetMGM.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+100)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10