MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: How To Play Miguel Cabrera & These 2 Brewers (Saturday, April 30)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Andrew McCutchen.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter: PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on today’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in Major League Baseball.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, April 30th
Miguel Cabrera — Hitter Fantasy Score Under 4.5
In the second game of this interleague series between the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers, we will be fading a few Tigers hitters against Clayton Kershaw.
Kershaw has been outstanding to start the year as he is 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.588 WHIP through three starts. His metrics are also outstanding as he boasts a .217 xwOBA, .183 xBA, and .313 xSLG.
Miguel Cabrera should be a good fade in this matchup, given his poor start to the season. Thus far, Cabrera possesses a mere .284 xwOBA, .232 xBA and .330 xSLG. In five career plate appearances against Kershaw, Cabrera is 0-5 with three strikeouts.
I would not play this number at anything lower than 4.5.
Jonathan Schoop — Under 0.5 Total Bases
The other Detroit hitter I'm fading in this matchup is Jonathan Schoop. Like Cabrera, Schoop has also had a poor start to the season as he possesses a .284 xwOBA, .237 xBA, and .378 xSLG.
On the road this season, Schoop has gone under this total in five of seven games. Against Kershaw in his career, Schoop is 0-for-3 with three strikeouts.
Eric Lauer — Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 27.5
We have the second game of this NL Central divisional matchup as the Brewers host the Cubs. Eric Lauer has had an excellent start to the season as he is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through three starts.
Lauer's metrics suggest that regression will not be coming anytime soon as he boasts a .303 xwOBA, .238 xBA and .422 xSLG. Despite the small sample size, Lauer has been terrific against the Cubs in his career.
In 25 career plate appearances against Lauer, this current Cubs roster has a mere .217 BA, .225 wOBA and .261 SLG. For this matchup, I would play this total up to 28.5.
Willy Adames — Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs
I will also be backing a few Milwaukee hitters in this game against left-handed pitcher Justin Steele. Steele should be a good fade in this game since he's just 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.733 WHIP through four starts.
Adames has been on fire of late and has gone over this run total in five of his last eight games. This should be a good matchup for him to keep it going since he's 2-for-4 with a home run against Steele in his career.
I would not play this total at anything over 0.5.
Andrew McCutchen — Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs
The other Milwaukee hitter I am backing in this matchup is Andrew McCutchen. Like Adames, this prop has been profitable for McCutchen recently as he has gone over this total in three of his last four games.
McCutchen has been much better when facing left-handers this season as he boasts a .292 BA and .808 OPS. He has homered in back-to-back games and should be able to generate at least one run against Steele.
I would not play this total at anything over 0.5.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
