MLB Prop Picks Today | Lucas Giolito Among Best Picks
Pictured: Lucas Giolito. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
A huge series gets underway in Baltimore where the defending World Series champion Astros will be taking on the Orioles, who currently have the best record in the American League. Framber Valdez will get the ball for the Astros. He likely has a tougher matchup than in his last start against Cleveland.
While the Orioles have best record in the AL, the Braves have the best record in the majors. However, they have lost three in a row on their road trip, including last night in Pittsburgh. Perhaps a few runs batted in from Matt Olson will help the Braves snap their losing streak.
Speaking of losing streaks, the Angels have not won since the trade deadline. One of their trade deadline acquisitions, Lucas Giolito, will get the start tonight. He will look to help them get back on track.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, August 8
Framber Valdez Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145)
|Astros vs. Orioles|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
Unless Framber Valdez throws a perfect game, it will be hard for him to be better than he was in his last start when he tossed a no-hitter against the Guardians. In that start, he did have seven strikeouts, which would go over this line. However, he averaged less than a strikeout per inning with seven in the complete game.
Valdez has recorded seven strikeouts in just four of his last 10 starts. Just to show how important the line matters here, he has been hooked on six three times and had seven twice in stretch.
I don't expect this line to drop, but I would avoid under 5.5 strikeouts. However, Valdez also faced the Rangers and Blue Jays in that stretch, two of the best offenses in the American League. In those outings, he had six strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings.
Valdez has another tough assignment tonight against the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has the 22nd highest strikeout percentage against left-handed pitchers. It is also 10th in both wRC+ and on-base percentage.
If the Orioles generate some traffic on the bases and make Valdez work, he might get to 100 pitches through six innings and be pulled. Valdez has gone under this line in seven of nine starts this season when pitching six innings or fewer.
Pick: Framber Valdez Under 6.5 Strikeouts
Matt Olson Over 0.5 Runs Batted In (+100)
|Braves vs. Pirates|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
Matt Olson went 2-for-4 last night with two runs batted in. He enters play tonight with 99 runs batted in and leads the majors. In the process, he tied a franchise record by becoming the third Braves player to streak of 10 consecutive games with a run batted in.
Tonight, I am backing him to break that record and he is in a favorable spot to do so.
Olson will face Mitch Keller, who he is 1-for-2 against in his career. Keller has allowed six runs or more in three of his last four starts. He also has allowed at least one home run in each of those starts and seven total in that stretch.
Olson's next home run will be his 40th and potentially his 100th run batted in as well. Olson is +260 to hit a home run on FanDuel and +275 on DraftKings, which I personally do not love considering that PNC Park can be tough for homers. However, I understand it with Olson's power combined with Keller's struggles recently.
However, a base hit will do for Olson to get a run batted in. He has recorded a hit in 11 of his last 12 games. In that span, Olson is hitting .380 with seven home runs and 19 runs batted in. However, he also had a sacrifice fly in the game he went hitless against the Angels.
Olson bats cleanup in the Braves lineup behind Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley. They have been nearly as hot as Olson during his RBI streak and the Braves are averaging 7.1 runs per game over their last 10 games.
I expect at least one of them to be on base for Olson to drive in, if he does not drive in himself with a homer.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 0.5 Runs Batted In
Lucas Giolito Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-145)
|Giants vs. Angels|
|First Pitch||9:38 p.m.|
In his first two starts as an Angel, Lucas Giolito has failed to pitch six innings. He was pulled in Toronto after 5 1/3 innings with just 73 pitches. He also allowed nine earned runs in his last start against the Braves and lasted just 3 2/3 innings.
Giolito isn't the first and wont be the last pitcher that Braves explode on this season, so I won't hold that against him.
I like Giolito's matchup against the Giants much more tonight. The Giants are averaging 3.6 runs per game over their last 10 games. In seven of those games, the Giants scored two runs or less through the first six innings, including last night when they scored six of their eight runs in the ninth inning.
If you have watched the Angels bullpen lately, then you know that manager Phil Nevin would probably prefer to get more length out of his starters.
Giolito was brought to Anaheim to stabilize the Angels rotation behind Shohei Ohtani. He pitched six innings in five of his last eight starts with the White Sox and he has hit this line in 14 of 23 starts this season.
Pick: Lucas Giolito Over 17.5 Outs Recorded