MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Jose Quintana, Gavin Williams, Nick Pivetta (Sunday, September 17)
Via Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Quintana #62 of the New York Mets in action against the Texas Rangers at Citi Field on August 29, 2023 in New York City. The Rangers defeated the Mets 3-1.
Well, yesterday was not great, as we took the reverse sweep. However, finishing strong on Sundays has been a theme this season, and I've found three pitchers who are going to help us do just that.
Let's dive into the top MLB player props for today's slate on Sunday, September 17.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, September 17th
Nick Pivetta has shown he can do it all for the Red Sox this season, as he's been the definition of a swingman. Pivetta has appeared in 35 games this season but has only made 13 starts. However, many of his relief appearances have been piggybacked starts out of the pen after an opener.
Nonetheless, Pivetta has shown that this number has been too high for him since the beginning of last season, when he made 33 starts. Over that span, he has made 68 appearances and gone under this number in 66.2% of them.
That gives us implied odds of -195, which is a solid value even on this juiced price. Add in that he is going up against the Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon, who happen to possess the sixth-lowest Team Strikeout Rate in the majors, and you have yourself a strong play to start your card.
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Gavin Williams has been dynamite for the Guardians this season. The rookie right-hander has made a significant impact in just 15 starts as he enters with a 3.43 ERA and has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning.
He has a tough matchup with the Texas Rangers today, and the oddsmakers are implying that he will hit the showers early. However, he has proven that he can work deep into games against some of the best lineups in baseball.
Williams has gone over this total of 14.5 pitching outs in 11 of his 15 career starts, which gives us implied odds of -274 that he will go over again today. Don't fear the matchup, and take the massive betting value on Williams.
Pick: Over 14.5 Pitching Outs -125 (bet365)
Jose Quintana missed nearly half the season with an injury and did not make his Mets debut until late July. However, he has provided stability and length to the Mets since his first appearance.
Quintana has recorded an out in the sixth inning in eight of the 10 starts he's made this season, and his length dates back to last season as he's gone over this total in 64% of his last 25 starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -177, which is a solid value on the current price. However, we should also factor in that he is facing a Reds team that is not very formidable away from their home ballpark.
Pick: Over 15.5 Pitching Outs -130 (DraftKings)
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