MLB Player Props Picks Today | Pete Alonso, Bryce Elder, Michael Kopech (Tuesday, May 2)
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Kopech
- Tuesday's MLB includes 15 games, and plenty of value in the player props market.
- Our analyst is on a trio of picks, including Pete Alonso, Bryce Elder and Michael Kopech.
- Continue reading for the top player prop betting options from the MLB slate on Tuesday, May 2.
The Atlanta Braves and New YorkMets were scheduled to play a four-game weekend series in their first battle of the season. However, Mother Nature had other ideas. Friday night’s game was shortened to five innings, a 4-0 Braves decision. Saturday and Sunday’s games were postponed with one being made up yesterday. The NL East rivals split a doubleheader yesterday as the Braves took the series.
Now, the Mets will hit the road while the Braves will continue their road trip. The Mets will be in Detroit to battle the Tigers. Right-hander Michael Lorenzen has been rocky through his first three starts, which could be good news for Mets slugger Pete Alonso.
The Braves will be in Miami to battle the Marlins. The Braves took three of four from Miami in Atlanta last week, but the Marlins had some success against right-hander Bryce Elder. However, that has not been in the case in the young right-hander’s career.
In Chicago, the White Sox finally snapped their 10-game losing with a seven run rally in the bottom of the ninth on Sunday against Tampa. They will welcome another first-place team to town in the MinnesotaTwins. The Twins could have some success against right-hander Michael Kopech tonight.
Let’s dive into tonight’s slate.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, May 2
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
|Mets vs. Tigers|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
For Pete Alonso, there has been a lot of boom or bust this season. But when he has connected, there has been a lot more boom. He is hitting just .248, but he has 11 home runs and 28 runs batted in. He is tied for the Major League lead in home runs and tied-second for runs batted in. He is +350 on FanDuel to hit a home run if you want to play him for Dinger Tuesday.
Alonso has a .878 OPS and the majority of his extra-base hits this season have been home runs. He has 11 home runs and two doubles this season. If Alonso hits a home run again, that will give him four bases and easily clear this line. However, he can also get two bases with a multi-hit game. Alonso has totaled two bases in four of his last 10 games (one was rain-shortened), but in three of those games he had two hits.
Alonso hit a home run in two of those three multi-hit games. He will have a good chance to homer tonight against Michael Lorenzen, who has struggled to begin this season. Alonso is just 1-for-5 in his career against Lorenzen, but this season Lorenzen has a 7.07 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. He also has allowed three home runs in just 14 innings. I like Alonso’s chances to take Lorenzen deep tonight, but even if he does not, he should get two bases.
Pick: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Bryce Elder Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)
|Braves vs. Marlins|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
Bryce Elder has had the strikeout pitch working to begin this season. He had at least four strikeouts in each of his first four starts. He went over this line in three of them, with at least six in all of those starts. He has a season high of seven against Cincinnati. However, in arguably his best matchup of the season, Elder produced his lowest strikeout output.
In his last start last Wednesday, Elder had just three strikeouts against the Miami Marlins. In that start, Elder had to work. He threw 96 pitches in 5 1/3 innings, gave up five hits, four runs and walked two. However, I am not going to overthink this. The Marlins rank eighth in strikeout percentage (25%) against right-handed pitchers. Seven of the last 10 right-handed starters they have faced have gone over their strikeout props and all had at least five.
Additionally, while Elder went under in his last start, he already has built a strong track record against Miami. The 23-year-old made just 10 starts last season, but four of them came against Miami. Elder had at least five strikeouts in three of the four starts, including his career-high of 10. In the other start, he had four. I feel confident in backing him tonight for five.
Pick: Bryce Elder Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Michael Kopech Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120)
|Twins vs. White Sox|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
The Chicago White Sox have gotten off to a rough start at 8-21 and pitching has been a primary culprit. The White Sox have a 5.96 team ERA and Michael Kopech has not helped matters. The right-hander has a 7.01 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. In four of his first five starts, he has gone over both his hits allowed and walks props. Tonight, I am targeting hits.
This line is 4.5, but Kopech has allowed six hits in four of his five starts this starts. This is despite not pitching more than five innings in any of those four starts. The advanced metrics illustrate why Kopech has struggled so much. He has a 58.1% Hard Hit Percentage, 93 mph Average Exit Velocity, and .642 xSLG. Kopech has actually does a good job of limiting the damage with those numbers. He has a 9.89 xERA, nearly three runs higher than his actual ERA.
Kopech will have to deal with a Twins lineup that has been hot of late. They have scored six runs or more in six of their last seven games. The Twins also have at least seven hits in six of those games as well. In particular, Kopech will have to watch out for Byron Buxton, who has been on a tear. Buxton has a hit in nine of his last 10 games, including five home runs. Buxton could lead a big night for the Twins offensively, but we just need
Pick: Michael Kopech Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120)
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