We have a 12-game slate to start the week, and plenty of MLB action tonight.
Our staff of baseball bettors has picks from several of today's games.
Read on for our 4 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:05 PM | |
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jon Anderson's Giants vs Braves Total Pick
By Jon Anderson
This is the top run-scoring environment in my data. My sim model puts this game at an 11-run average total. That's mostly on the Braves side as they project very well against Anthony Molina and the Giants bullpen in Atlanta.
Bryce Elder has had a fine season for the Braves, and it's still a soft matchup against the Giants. But the Giants do a lot more run-scoring on the road, which makes sense given that brutal home ballpark.
They've hit 81 homers on the road and just 68 at home. That's a huge difference. So I think they can sneak a few balls out of the yard here against Elder and his pitch-to-contact ways.
This is the most mispriced O/U of the day, and I'm jumping at the opportunity.
Read Anderson's The Leadoff here:
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Pick: Over 9 (-105)
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Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under Bet
The Miami Marlins enter this late-season contest hovering on the fringes of the playoff picture, sitting 3.5 games back of the final National League Wild Card spot. However, without the burden of overarching external expectations, Miami can afford to play loose baseball down the stretch.
The Washington Nationals find themselves in a similar situational spot, although their chances of reaching the postseason are far more slim.
Sitting 8.5 games out of the Wild Card race, they aren't experiencing any of the nervous tension that accompanies a true playoff push, and this free-swinging environment has fueled some high-scoring games recently, with the total going over 8.5 runs in four of Washington's last seven contests.
This matchup aligns nicely with our Bet Labs system titled "Late Season Overs, Lower Totals — COL, ARI, WAS Home."
The theory behind this system highlights a specific market trend: late in the MLB season, totals in high-variance environments like Washington D.C. are often priced too modestly (≤10.5).
Public bettors frequently underestimate late-season run production, mistakenly assuming that fatigue or playoff pressure will suppress scoring. In reality, neither of these teams is facing genuine playoff pressure, which neutralizes the narrative of "up-tight" August and September baseball.
Furthermore, the combination of expanded rosters and general bullpen exhaustion late in the year naturally creates defensive volatility.
When you factor in tonight’s weather at Nationals Park, the edge becomes even clearer. The forecast calls for warm temperatures around 84 to 86 degrees at first pitch, paired with a sticky 64% humidity and a 51% chance of a brief thunderstorm.
These muggy, humid conditions in D.C. are exactly what this system targets, as the heavy air tends to help the ball carry.
With two vulnerable pitching setups and an ideal hitting environment, the market line of 8.5 appears to be sitting too low.
Read full Marlins-Nationals breakdown here:
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Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)
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Orioles vs Rockies ML Pick
The Orioles are playing great baseball right now and have won 7 of their last 9 games.
They should be able to keep that momentum rolling offensively as they go to Coors Field, and the Orioles have the pitching edge with one of their better arms, Kyle Bradish, starting tonight.
He's a better pitcher than his surface numbers indicate, and I really like the Orioles lineup, with their power, in Coors.
Read full Orioles-Rockies breakdown here:
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Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-130)
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Phillies vs Diamondbacks HR Pick
I have no idea why Kyle Schwarber's odds are so high in a plus spot, but I'm not going to argue.
Brandon Pfaadt has been a big plus matchup for lefty power this season (1.72 HR/9), and he's been an above-average matchup in his career (1.52 HR/9).
This ballpark is a downgrade for Schwarber, but he is one of the best HR hitters in the league, and the odds are way too high in a good spot.
I have the true odds around +270, making this a great bet.
Pick: Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Home Runs
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