MLB Player Props, Odds | Friday’s Bets for Luis Robert Jr. & More
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Robert (White Sox)
- After a tough day, Alex Hinton is heading back into the player prop department for MLB.
- On Friday, the MLB expert is targeting two pitchers and a big White Sox bat.
- Dive in below and get set for another big night in baseball.
Yesterday was a rough day for us as we went 0-2 with a void and a particularly tough beat on Taj Bradley. After dominating the A's through the first four innings, a few walks and bloop singles allowed the A's to tie the game and thus he finished two outs short of a win.
However, it's a new day, and I have three more plays to bring us into the weekend.
In New York, the Mets will welcome the Cardinals to Citi Field for a matchup of two of the NL's most disappointing teams. Miles Mikolas will get the ball for the Cardinals, and he may issue a pair of walks.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will head to Texas in a possible playoff matchup against the Rangers. The Blue Jays are 11th in MLB in runs scored and the Rangers lead the majors, so runs could be aplenty.
However, the Rangers may be too much, even for Kevin Gausman.
In Seattle, the White Sox will continue their West Coast trip against the Mariners. Luis Robert Jr. has started to heat up once again, as he's homered in each of the last two games. He could be in for another big night against rookie Bryan Woo.
MLB Player Props For Friday, June 16
Miles Mikolas Over 1.5 Walks (+120)
|Cardinals vs. Mets|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
It was a rough start to the season for Mikolas, but he used a stellar May (1.89 ERA) to lower his ERA to 4.02. He still has an xERA of 4.87, which is a byproduct of the traffic he allows.
Mikolas has a WHIP of 1.35, which is largely because he's allowed 92 hits in 80 1/3 innings. However, he's issued 17 walks this season, as well.
Mikolas had a stretch where he walked at least two batters six times in a seven-start span. Then, he went under this line in four consecutive starts before issuing two walks against the Reds last time out. The Reds are fifth in walks percentage against right-hander pitchers, so the matchup made sense.
This matchup against the Mets also makes sense. The Mets are 10th in walks percentage against right-handers and six of their hitters have a walks percentage of 9.5% or higher. Collectively, they've drawn seven walks in 111 career plate appearances against Mikolas.
Additionally, Mikolas' outs-recorded line is at 18.5, which means the oddsmakers expect him to go at least 6 1/3 innings. That means he'll likely see 20+ batters, and he's averaging 25.1 batters faced per start.
I'll take plus money for him to issue two walks in this spot.
Pick: Miles Mikolas Over 1.5 Walks
Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110)
|Blue Jays vs. Rangers|
|First Pitch||8:05 p.m. ET|
Gausman leads MLB with six starts consisting of double-digit strikeouts and ranks second with 117 strikeouts in just 86 1/3 innings. However, five of those starts have come in Toronto, where he has a 2.61 ERA and .218 opposing batting average allowed.
Gausman is not terrible on the road, but he's not as dominant as he's been at the Rogers Centre.
On the road, Gausman is 3-3 with a 3.76 ERA. He's allowed 39 hits in 38 1/3 innings and is allowing a .253 opposing batting average in seven road starts.
Today, he faces a dangerous Texas lineup that leads MLB in hits, batting average and runs scored. When the Rangers get rolling, the entire lineup can get into the hit column.
However, they'll still make the opposing pitcher work in losses. Just yesterday, they posted six hits and struck out just three times in six innings against Shohei Ohtani, as he went well under his line of 7.5 strikeouts.
We've hit on Gausman's walks before, but when he allows baserunners, usually it's via hits. He's gone over this line in just six of his 14 starts this season. However, most of those overs have come against the tougher lineups he's faced — such as St. Louis, Houston, Boston and Baltimore.
Collectively, the Rangers are hitting .286 against Gausman, with Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia and Nathaniel Lowe each being .400 or above lifetime.
If Gausman goes through the Rangers' lineup a couple of times, I believe it's likely that he allows at least six hits.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Hits Allowed
Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-125)
|White Sox vs. Mariners|
|First Pitch||10:10 p.m. ET|
Speaking of the Rangers, Woo got a firsthand experience of how difficult it can be to navigate their lineup, as he allowed six runs on seven hits in his MLB debut.
He fared better in his last start, striking out seven and coming up one out short of qualifying for a win against the Angels.
Tonight, he faces a White Sox lineup that has hit seven home runs in the past two games.
Robert is responsible for two of those home runs, two of a team-leading 17 home runs this season. He's hit a home run in three of his last four games and in four of his last seven.
He's hitting .283 with eight runs scored, six runs batted in and a .983 OPS in the month of June. That's helped him clear this line in six of his last nine games. He's averaging 2.3 hits + runs + runs batted in over that span.
The fastest way for Robert to clear this line would be if he hits another home run (+450) and gives himself at least three hits + runs + runs batted in.
However, he has five multi-hit games in June, along with three games of scoring two runs. Even if he doesn't hit a home run tonight, I like his chances of clearing this combo.