We've got a full, all-day slate on tap for Wednesday, starting with Blue Jays vs Astros at 2:10 PM ET (Daikin Park) and closing with Padres vs Diamondbacks at 9:40 PM ET (Chase Field).
Read on for our 4 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 3:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Evan Abrams's Blue Jays vs Astros Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
This system targets Unders in games with high strikeout starting pitchers.
With fewer balls in play and more missed bats, these games trend Under, especially in regular season settings with moderately priced totals.
This model capitalizes on pitching dominance to limit run production.
I am happy to bet an Under in any game that Hunter Brown is involved. He's one of my favorite young arms in baseball, and he's shown that again this season.
However, I do think Jameson Taillon is pitching better than his 5.92 ERA suggests (4.80 xFIP, 4.22 botERA) — partially indicated by his 21% strikeout rate, which fits this system.
It helps that we're getting two top-15 bullpens and a pitcher-friendly umpire in Mike Muchlinski, as you can see by diving into Sean Zerillo's BARTOLO tool:
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Rays vs Rockies Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
The Rockies will host the Rays on Wednesday afternoon to conclude a three-game set at Coors Field in Colorado.
Given Coors Field’s status as a hitter-friendly ballpark, I expect Wednesday’s contest to be a prime spot to target player prop betting markets.
And I expect Junior Caminero to have a massive day at the plate against Tomoyuki Sugano.
Across 19 appearances and 103 frames this season, Sugano is running a 4.47 ERA after surrendering 51 earned runs. That said, his ERA is a product of his Mile High environment, and his 1.26 WHIP is more indicative of his true talent level.
Still, Caminero is one of the best hitters in baseball.
Sugano is a four-seam-heavy pitcher (21% usage), but he’s allowed a whopping .422 xwOBA on the pitch with just a 14% whiff rate.
That’ll be a problem against Caminero, who is slugging .671 against four-seamers this season.
Pick: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-200 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's White Sox vs Red Sox Best Bet
Red Sox shortstop Andruw Monasterio is priced at DraftKings at +522, implying a 16% chance to hit a double tonight at Fenway Park.
However, Action PRO projects him with 0.29 doubles against the White Sox, or a fair price closer to +245.
This gives us a solid 9.1% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 0.5, which is good enough to tag the over with a B- grade in our system.
Monasterio already has a career-high 19 doubles this season, and hit eight of them in July.
That wasn't only his best month in this department but all-around, as he averaged .338 and had a .631 slugging percentage and a 1.044 OPS.
His red-hot streak continues, as he has .364, .455 and .871 in August so far.
At a great value, let's back him today to get another double against Chicago.
Pick: Andruw Monastario Over 0.5 Doubles (+400 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Padres vs Diamondbacks Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Padres in the first-half of this battle with the Snakes.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, my new PRO baseball betting tool providing PRO subscribers with live access to all the data I use to project games each day.
Here's what BARTOLO looks like for Padres-Diamondbacks:
Pick: Padres F5 ML (-135 or Better)
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