MLB Prop Picks Today | Odds for Ronald Acuna Jr. & More
Photo by Kyle Rivas/Getty Images. Pictured: Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves)
- Alex Hinton is targeting three player props tonight in MLB.
- He's backing a red-hot pitcher in Boston, while also targeting two stars in Yordan Alvarez and Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Here's the reasoning behind each MLB player prop pick.
Last Tuesday was a great night for home runs around the league, which was also great if you participated in FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday promotion. However, with 80+ degree weather in several cities across the country, it felt like summer in many MLB parks.
Today appears to be like a normal April day, particularly with temperatures in the 40s and 50s in several northern cities.
While home runs may not be flying out tonight, there are still a couple of batters I have my eye on.
However, first, let's check in on Sonny Gray in Boston.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, April 18
Sonny Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+128)
| Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Sonny Gray has been dominant to kick off the 2023 season. In three starts, he is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
He also has had his strikeout pitch, with 19 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. Gray recorded 13 of those strikeouts in his second start against the White Sox.
However, Gray has gone over this line in two of his three starts this season and six of his last 10 dating back to last season.
Tonight, Gray faces a capable Red Sox lineup that is averaging 5.35 runs per game. Boston is also just 23rd with eight strikeouts per game.
However, it does have several potential strikeout targets. Triston Casas, Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder all already have double-digit strikeouts this season. Gray has struck out twice Devers twice in 10 career ABs and Justin Turner twice in eight career ABs.
I like Gray to go over this line, but it will be important for him to manage his pitch count. He has gone five innings in two of his first three starts this season, throwing 83, 97 and 78 pitches.
Gray may need to get five strikeouts in five innings, but this line is worth taking at these odds.
Pick: Sonny Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+128)
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-145)
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Last night, the Astros jumped on Kevin Gausman early and often with a seven-run first inning. Yordan Alvarez drew a walk and scored on an RBI double by Jose Abreu.
However, Alvarez did not contribute with the bat himself, going 0-for-3 with a walk and three strikeouts. Alvarez is not someone who will be held down for long.
He has hit this line in nine of 15 games this season. He is averaging 3.1 hits + runs + runs batted in per game during that stretch and 2.5 per game this season.
Alvarez may hit this combo with just runs batted in. He leads MLB with 20 RBIs, and he has already driven in two or more runs in five games this season.
Tonight, Alvarez faces Chris Bassitt, who he saw plenty of when Bassitt was with the Athletics. Bassitt is now back in the American League with the Blue Jays.
Alvarez is 4-for-10 with three home runs and seven runs batted in off of Bassitt in his career.
Alvarez is +330 to hit a home run on FanDuel — if you want to play him for Dinger Tuesday. Whether he homers or not, I like him to clear this line tonight.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-145)
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+150)
| Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres | |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
For my last pick, I am going with a bit of a long shot. However, the numbers back it up.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is tied for fourth in MLB with seven stolen bases. He has been successful on seven of nine stolen base attempts this season.
Tonight, he gets Blake Snell, who does not do a good job of controlling runners despite being a left-handed pitcher.
Over the last two years, Snell has allowed 30 stolen bases on 37 attempts for an 81% hit rate. This season, Snell has already allowed four stolen bases on four attempts, including three in his last start against the Mets.
When betting stolen bases, players can reach on an error or a fielder's choice, but it helps if you target someone that is likely to be on base. Acuna is hitting .389 (third in MLB) this season and also has a .463 on-base percentage.
Acuna is 2-for-5 against Snell in his career, including 1-for-2 with a walk against Snell on April 6. If Acuna does not get a hit off of him, Snell has allowed 10 walks in just 13.2 innings this season.
If Acuna reaches first, expect him to have the green light to steal against Snell. Additionally, getting to second base will make it even easier for Matt Olson or Austin Riley to knock him in.
Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+150)
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