MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Rafael Devers & More (September 13)
Photo by Richard T Gagnon/Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Devers (Red Sox)
- Our analyst has three MLB player prop bets he's targeting for today's slate.
- Find the over bet he's locking in for Rafael Devers in Yankees vs Red Sox.
This weekend, the Cubs will head to Arizona for an important series in the NL wild card race. They will also have revenge on their minds after the Diamondbacks took three of four at Wrigley Field last weekend.
However, first, the Cubs will be looking to secure a series victory over the Rockies. Cody Bellinger may contribute to the cause.
In Philadelphia, the Braves-Phillies series has basically been a home run derby, with 15 long balls in the first three games. That's not too surprising considering the power hitters on both sides.
However, Spencer Strider has had the Phillies' number this season. Strider will look to continue that success tonight, as he bounces back from a rough start against the Cardinals.
Like the Braves-Phillies on Monday, the Yankees and Red Sox played a doubleheader yesterday at Fenway Park. The Yankees swept both games, but Rafael Devers homered in game one. He may hit a long ball for the second consecutive game off of Clarke Schmidt.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, September 13
Over the last few weeks, we've backed Bellinger multiple times on a variety of props. And more often than not, he's cashed.
Bellinger enters today's action hitting .317 with a .907 OPS, which ranks sixth and eighth in MLB, respectively. His consistency has been remarkable, as he has a hit in 12 of his past 13 games.
Bellinger has recorded two total bases in three of his last four games, but what I really like is that he did it three different ways.
He had two hits on Saturday, he hit his 25th home run on Sunday and he doubled on Monday against the Rockies.
Playing at Coors Field, extra-base hits are expected when playing in the high altitude, and Bellinger will have a solid matchup to get one.
Against Ty Blach, Bellinger is 7-for-22 (.318) with a double and three runs batted in. Blach has a .349 opposing batting average at home and he's given up a double and four home runs to left-handers in just 56 at-bats.
Bellinger is hitting .347 with 10 doubles, one triple, nine home runs and a 1.003 OPS against left-handed pitchers. He's also hitting .321 on the road and .305 in day games.
At -135, this price has more juice than I would prefer to lay on a total bases prop, but this game is at Coors Field. FanDuel has this line at -155.
However, considering Bellinger's consistency and his matchup against Blach, I'll drink the juice here.
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Last Wednesday when I was reviewing lines, I noticed Strider's line was at 9.5 strikeouts against the Cardinals. I leaned towards the under because the Cardinals don't strike out a lot.
What I didn't expect was for Strider to struggle for the second consecutive start, as he allowed six earned runs in 2 2/3 innings. He's now allowed 10 earned runs in his last two starts.
Those starts came against the Dodgers and Cardinals, who have difficult lineups to navigate.
Strider has another tough matchup against a hot Phillies lineup on Wednesday. However, Strider has nine strikeouts in both of his starts against the Phillies this season — and in four of his last five against them dating back to last season. In those starts, he also has a 1.72 ERA in 30 2/3 innings.
The Phillies have the 11th-highest Strikeout Rate, making this a more favorable matchup for Strider than the Dodgers or Phillies were.
Additionally, Charlie Morton had nine strikeouts in game one of this series on Monday, while Max Fried punched out six in just five innings last night. Neither of them are the strikeout pitcher that Strider is, as he leads the league with 250 strikeouts.
Recently, Strider has been a bit feast or famine, but he's punched out nine or more in four of his seven starts. Stretch it back further and he has nine strikeouts in 11 of his past 14 starts.
Strider's line is typically at 8.5 or 9.5 strikeouts, so I'm buying low here while it's still at 7.5 strikeouts. If the line moves to 8.5 by the time you're able to play it, I would feel comfortable with taking it there, too.
Devers hit his 29th home run of the season on August 20 against the Yankees. It took him 18 games to get No. 30, but it's no surprise that it was also against the Yankees.
Devers is slashing .410/.500/.846 with two doubles, five home runs and eight runs batted in against the Yanks this season. That would explain why manager Aaron Boone immediately intentionally walked Devers when he pinch hit in a crucial spot in game two last night.
Devers' home run drought didn't stop him from getting on base. In September, he's hitting .318 with six doubles and a .898 OPS. Devers has recorded a hit in eight of his last 10 starts, including four multi-hit games. In that span, he recorded two total bases six times.
I've mentioned the success Devers has had against the Yankees this season and in particular, he's gotten to Schmidt. Devers is 4-for-10 (.400) with a double and home run (on August 20) against Schmidt.
Although he's been more steady since April, Schmidt has still struggled against left-handed hitters this season. Lefties are hitting .301 with 26 doubles, nine home runs and .875 OPS against him.
Devers' splits are fairly even against lefties and righties, but his batting average — .279 — is 15 points higher at home.
Pesky's pole makes right field an advantageous spot for Devers to hit a home run. He can also bang a double off the Green Monster to collect two total bases.