We have an all-day, nine-game Major League Baseball slate tonight on Thursday, August 13.
Our staff of baseball bettors has expert picks for every game on Thursday, including Guardians vs Tigers (1:10 PM ET, Comerica Park), Pirates vs Marlins (1:10 PM ET, LoanDepot Park), Mariners vs Yankees (1:35 PM ET, Yankee Stadium), Reds vs White Sox (2:10 PM ET, Rate Field), Red Sox vs Blue Jays (3:07 PM ET, Rogers Centre), and Cubs vs Nationals (4:10 PM ET, Nationals Park).
Read on for our 7 MLB Best Bets Today for Thursday's afternoon slate, and we'll have another best bets column published for the night slate soon.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 1:35 PM | |
| 1:35 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 3:07 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Guardians vs Tigers Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Guardians ML in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, our new PRO baseball betting tool giving our PRO subscribers live access to all the data I use to project games each day.
Below is just a sneak peak of what you can get with a PRO subscription and BARTOLO:
Pick: Guardians ML (-130 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Pirates vs Marlins Best Bet
Action PRO projects Marlins starter Tyler Phillips for 2.97 strikeouts this afternoon against the Pirates, giving us a great 19.9% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 3.5, which is good enough to tag the under with an A grade in our system.
Philips has a low 7.7 K-BB% and just 70 Ks in 93 1/3 innings this season.
He has gone under this line in six of his past eight starts.
At plus money, let's fade him today on his strikeout line against Pittsburgh.
Pick: Tyler Phillips Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
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Sean Paul's Mariners vs Yankees Best Bet
By Sean Paul
I'm a bit shocked to see this total sitting at 8. I expected it to be 7 at open, but perhaps the barrage of scoring on Wednesday changed things a bit.
The facts are that two of the 20 best pitchers in the AL will face off (Logan Gilbert, Max Fried), and these two offenses have been among the worst in the league for months.
I expect a pitcher's duel here.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Mariners vs Yankees Best Bet
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Gilbert's pitching outs prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 16.20 pitching outs, while oddsmakers are implying 18.16.
The model believes there is a 58% chance he records fewer than 18 pitching outs, so this play is good down to at least -112.
Pick: Logan Gilbert Under 17.5 Outs (-112 or Better)
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
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Matt Trollo's Reds vs White Sox Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
It’s four quality starts for Andrew Abbott in his last six, but only twice with fewer than three runs and an overall 4.01 ERA over this span, with all non-FIP estimators even higher.
His 3.92 ERA on the season is at least three-quarters of a run below all estimators, ranging from a 4.66 Bot ERA (93 Pitching+) to a 5.11 dERA.
Has Abbott beaten his estimators in the past? Yes.
However, this season is the furthest he’s ever been from his xERA (4.75) and SIERA (5.02). His 6.8 K-BB% is his first time in single digits.
It truly has been smoke and mirrors for Abbott this year, with RHBs owning a .320 wOBA, but .360 xwOBA against him.
The projected White Sox lineup (via BARTOLO) includes four batters above a 135 wRC+ against LHP and four below 85, with Munetaka Murakami (102) in between. It’s an average 102 wRC+ and .181 ISO against RHP, 104 over the last 30 days and 103 on the road without any super small samples, other than what the short half of a platoon normally sees in a season. In other words, we’re not projecting anyone for the White Sox who has come late to the party.
The defense behind Abbott is projected to be average (-2 FRV – Fielding Run Value), while the bullpen is a surprise among the top third of the league over the last month with a 3.71 FIP, 4.05 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA, though BARTOLO ranks Cincinnati the 2nd-worst relief unit in the league without a single reliever registering a wFIP below four.
Perhaps it was a mercy that Davis Martin’s last start was cut to one inning by rain. He’s endured a 6.44 ERA over his last 14 starts with at least four runs in half of them, but his 4.66 xFIP during this stretch is still better than Abbott’s on the season (4.85).
Abbott has the better contact profile, but even over the last month, Martin’s SIERA is 0.86 runs better.
The first four batters in the projected Cincinnati lineup range from a 105 wRC+ to a 123 wRC+ against RHP this year, with only one (Bleday 123) above 107. Nobody else reaches 90, and three sit no higher than 65, including Ke’Bryan Hayes at…I believe that number is a ZERO.
On average, it’s a 78 wRC+ and .155 ISO against RHP, and remember they play half their games in one of the most power-friendly parks in the league, along with an 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 78 on the road.
The projected defense behind Martin is also average (4 FRV), with a bullpen that basically swapped out Seranthony Dominguez for Huascar Brazoban at the deadline, running a 4.02 FIP, 4.49 xFIP, and 4.12 SIERA over the last 30 days. BARTOLO ranks the White Sox the 16th-best bullpen in the league.
None of the numbers for either of these starting pitchers encourage me, but I still tentatively have Martin nearly half a run ahead of Abbott without too much confidence, and it encourages me that most of the former's key issue has been with LHBs (.328 wOBA, .354 xwOBA), something the Cincinnati lineup lacks in quality and quantity.
I'm more confident in an offensive gap greater than 20 points (wRC+), while the White Sox also project the better defense (6 FRV) and better bullpen via BARTOLO, though last-30-day estimators do have the Reds nearly half a run better.
The overall package allows me to project the White Sox as substantial favorites, where the market has them just moderately so. I have the full game and F5 portions nearly equal values, so it really depends on personal preference, and I elect to involve the bullpens and disregard the opportunity for a push here.
Play to -160, but reduce to 0.5u above -150.
Pick: White Sox ML (-160 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Red Sox vs Blue Jays Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Payton Tolle struck out a career-high 14 A’s in his last start, and say whatever you want about the lineup the team from Sacramento is currently posting, but Tolle also sat at his highest velocity of the season (97.6 mph), a half mph above his previous high in his first start (97.1), and he did this in just 84 pitches.
In fact, that’s five straight starts with at least seven strikeouts and a high of 90 pitches for Tolle.
With a 21.8 K-BB% and 35.5 HardHit%, it seems Boston just replaced Garrett Crochet with another version of him. Tolle isn’t running a single estimator reaching three and a half.
BARTOLO’s projected nine (which includes Alejandro Kirk for the day game after a night game) is averaging just an 89 wRC+ at home, 94 wRC+ (.148 ISO) vs LHP, and 86 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The bottom five batters do not include a single one reaching league average in either of the last two categories.
The Boston projected defense (without Rutschman) sits at 9 FRV, and a bullpen that didn’t need to do much has the best estimators in the league over the last 30 days (2.68 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 3.01 SIERA) by nearly two-tenths of a run over the second-best bullpen. It’s also BARTOLO’s top-rated bullpen with a 3.44 wFIP.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Max Scherzer hasn’t embarrassed himself in three starts back from the IL, allowing just four runs over 14 innings with a 15.3 K-BB% and 33 HardHit%. His K-BB has been above 17% in each of his last two starts, and his 94.2 mph fastball average last time out was his highest of the season by half a mph. Scherzer hasn’t averaged 94 mph for a full season since his first year with the Mets (2022).
Scherzer has a 3.99 ERA and has allowed a .314 wOBA in these three starts, though LHBs still have a .348 wOBA against him (.412 for the season).
All great signs and probably the most we can hope for out of Scherzer, whose only remaining goal is climbing the career strikeout leaderboard (19 more to Gaylord Perry in 9th place).
For some reason, the Boston offense has hit better away from Fenway this year, with Thursday’s projected lineup (sans Rutschman) averaging a 115 wRC+ on the road, 103 vs RHP and 117 over the last 30 days. Only Jarren Duran (63) and Connor Wong (36) are below a 115 wRC+ over the last month.
I’m projecting Kirk in, but Rutschman out for a couple of reasons.
First, this game is a couple of hours later than a normal day game in Toronto, and the LHP necessitates more of a need for Kirk’s bat, while Rutschman is just off a long IL stint a couple of days ago. This would seem like a good spot to rest him.
Second, to illustrate the point that I’m coming to my conclusion on this game while giving Toronto the better catching situation.
Toronto, in part because of that catching projection, would have 19 FRV on the field with BARTOLO’s nine.
A bullpen that traded away Jeff Hoffman at the deadline owns a 4.02 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, and 4.49 SIERA over the last 30 days. Their 7.7 K-BB% is fourth-worst in the league during this run. BARTOLO ranks them 14th overall.
I have Payton Tolle fairly well aligned with his 3.20 ERA according to underlying metrics. That gives him a two-run edge over Scherzer’s season numbers and still nearly a run better than Scherzer’s post-IL uptick.
More clearly, the Boston offense is nearly 20 points (wRC+) ahead of the Toronto one in this situation.
Toronto does get a 10 FRV edge here (which also depends on the catching situations), but bullpen estimators separate these teams by more than a run and a third over the last 30 days and nearly half a run by BARTOLO’s rankings.
I make the Red Sox very large favorites here and would play them to -215, dropping to half a unit above -200.
Also, if you play on FanDuel and have chosen 50% Profit Boosts as your rewards this week, this is a great game to use one on (I boosted it to -109).
Pick: Red Sox ML (-215 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Cubs vs Nationals Best Bet
I really like this starting pitching matchup.
Kevin Gausman is one of the sport’s best pitchers when he’s locked in. He’s been unlucky this season (4.29 ERA), but the underlying numbers are still rock-solid (3.82 xERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 3.08 botERA) behind his ever-dangerous splitter (40% whiff, .235 xwOBA allowed).
Washington’s offense is a little watered down right now without James Wood — Zerillo projects this lineup with just a 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That’ll help Gausman, as will the league’s best infield defense.
The Nationals have found a few solid starting arms this season, including Cade Cavalli, power-rated as Sean Zerillo’s No. 34 starting pitcher (3.71 weighted FIP). He’s got a couple of nasty secondary offerings (117 Stuff+ slider, 112 Stuff+ curveball).
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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