MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Rockies-Giants, 2 Other Monday Games
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nolan Arenado
- Wiseguys are betting three National League games on Monday, headlined by Braves-Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Dodgers-Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET) and Rockies-Giants (10:05 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
The weekend has come and gone. It’s back to the grind for sharps and squares alike.
Casual bettors thirsty for action might be disappointed with today’s gambling schedule. No more NBA or NHL. Not even WNBA or CFL. Even worse, the baseball board can nearly be counted on one hand. But wiseguys don’t mind. They see quality, not quantity and have promptly gotten down a trio of MLB games.
>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Atlanta Braves (46-32) at Chicago Cubs (42-35)
8:05 p.m. ET | Julio Teheran (5-5, 3.40 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (6-5, 4.13 ERA)
Public bettors don’t know which way to go with this marquee matchup. They love betting home teams and favorites like the Cubs, but they also can’t pass up taking a better team like the Braves as a juicy plus-money dog.
But sharps aren’t undecided. They’ve taken a clear side.
This game opened with the Cubs listed as short -115 home favorites. Currently 52% of bets are backing Chicago, however we’ve seen this line jump nearly 20 cents toward the Cubs. Normally, relatively even bet splits should move a line only or cent or two.
In other words, the ticket count isn’t lopsided enough to push a line so far. It had to be caused by wiseguy smart money.
Chicago is getting only 52% of bets but 71% of dollars and we’ve tracked a pair of steam moves on the Cubs at -118 and -120 (with no conflicting plays on the Braves), further evidence of smart pro money backing the home favorite.
According to our Bet Labs database, the Cubs are the third-most profitable home team this season (27-14, +6.48 units, 15.8% ROI) and second-most profitable team when listed as a favorite (33-17, +7.57 units, 15.1% ROI).
Sharp angle: Cubs (moved from -115 to -132)
Los Angeles Dodgers (54-25) at Arizona Diamondbacks (39-40)
9:40 p.m. ET | Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.96 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (8-3, 2.91 ERA)
Death, taxes and Average Joes betting on Clayton Kershaw every time he takes the mound.
This NL West showdown opened with the Dodgers listed as -138 road favorites. Currently 77% of bettors are rushing to the window to back Los Angeles, yet we’ve actually seen this line fall to -132. Why would the Dodgers’ price get cheaper if the public is already betting them?
Because sharps have gotten down hard on Arizona. They love spots like this where you can back a contrarian divisional dog at home in a heavily bet game with its ace on the mound. Win, lose or draw, that’s the definition of value.
Arizona is receiving only 23% of bets but 49% of dollars, a sign that the bigger, sharper wagers are in their favor. We’ve also seen three separate steam and reverse line moves on the Diamondbacks at +129, +126 and +125. This overload of smart money dropped Arizona down to +120.
The D-backs also find themselves in a profitable historical spot, as they match the Bet Labs PRO system Betting Against the Public (+166.6 units since 2005).
Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from +127 to +120)
Colorado Rockies (40-37) at San Francisco Giants (33-43)
10:05 p.m. ET | Jon Gray (7-5, 4.18 ERA) vs. Drew Pomeranz (2-7, 7.09 ERA)
Some of the sharpest plays are the most disgusting ones that look like they can’t possibly cash. This late-night NL West grudge match is a perfect example.
The Rockies have a far better record than the Giants and San Francisco sends a pitcher with a putrid 7.09 ERA to the mound against a murderers row of Colorado batters. The public sees a lock on Rocky Mountain High, but sharps know there’s no such thing as a lock. The play is San Francisco.
This game opened with Colorado listed as a -135 road favorite and San Francisco a +125 dog. Currently 76% of bets are backing the Rockies, yet we’ve seen the favorite tank from -135 to -110.
What caused this massive reverse line movement?
Smart money buying low on San Fran (24% of bets, 51% of dollars), of course.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked three reverse line moves and two steam moves on the G-Men, with sharps crushing them at +132, +125, +120, +119 and +108.
The sheer number of moves on San Francisco is notable, but it’s also important to note the price of each move. Even though the payout got smaller, professional money kept coming. This signals supreme wiseguy confidence in the home dog.
Sharp angle: Giants (moved from +125 to +103)