Tuesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Phillies-Red Sox, Two Other Games
Jake Arrieta. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
- Pros went 2-2-1 on Monday, but thanks to a pair of plus-money dogs earned +0.5 units.
- Wiseguys are going back to the well with tonight's Phillies-Red Sox total of 10.
- Sharps are also eyeing a pair of low total unders.
Wiseguys kept the good vibes going last night. They split their five Monday plays 2-2-1, but thanks to the plus-money won with the Twins (+113) and the Brewers (+137), pros were able to turn a profit of a half-unit. This is the beauty of betting baseball. It’s one of the only sports in which can you split your plays but still make money. It might not seem like much, but over the course of a long six-month MLB season, half-unit days stack up bigly when it’s all said and done.
After analyzing Tuesday’s slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
- Sharp angles: Over 10
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Wiseguys swung and missed on the Phillies-Red Sox Over last night, but they’re going back to the well tonight. The public sees a high total and Jake Arrieta (8-6, 3.45 ERA) on the mound and doesn’t know whether to go over or under. But sharps have taken a clear side. The Over is getting 50% of bets but nearly 60% of dollars, with the Over juice rising from 10 Over -110 to 10 Over -115, indicating Over liability.
Pro players have been getting down hard on the Over since the line opened, triggering separate steam and reverse line moves at four different books (Pinnacle, YouWager, GTBets and Buckeye). In addition, the wind is blowing out to left center.
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
- Sharp angle: Under 7.5
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Despite a sneakily impressive pitching matchup between Tyler Skaggs (2.62 ERA) and Ryne Stanek (2.43 ERA), the public sees a low total and automatically goes Over. But sharps know there’s much more to betting totals than just going Over when the total is low and Under when the total is high.
Nearly 75% of bets are taking the Over, but nearly 60% of dollars are taking the Under. The total opened at 7.5 Over -115, and now the total is 7.5 Under -114. This indicates liability on the Under. Sharps at Pinnacle, Heritage and BetUS all hammered the Under 7.5, and we haven’t seen any conflicting Over signals.
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Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals
- Sharp angles: Under 7
- First pitch 8:15 p.m. ET
The Rockies and Cardinals combined for nine runs last night. With John Gray and his 5.16 ERA toeing the rubber, public bettors see another easy Over. But wiseguys disagree. More than 80% of bets are on the Over, but it accounts for of 53% of dollars. This indicates predominantly Average Joe money.
Despite the heavy public Over betting, the total has fallen from 7.5 to 7. This was caused by a trio of steam and reverse line moves on the Under 7.5 at Pinnacle, YouWager and ABC. This reveals that wiseguys think the hook is crucial (7.5 not 7). The juice on the 7 is currently Over -120, which means if you missed the 7.5 it might rise back up before first pitch.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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