The Washington Nationals host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 1, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -156 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +129 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Nationals Prediction
- Brewers vs Nationals Pick: Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)
My Brewers vs Nationals best bet is on Jake Irvin to record Under 4.5 strikeouts in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Nationals Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +109 | 8 -105o / -115u | -156 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -131 | 8 -105o / -115u | +129 |
- Brewers vs Nationals moneyline: Brewers -156, Nationals +129
- Brewers vs Nationals over/under: 8 (-105o / -115u)
- Brewers vs Nationals spread: Brewers -1.5 (+109), Nationals +1.5 (-131)
Brewers vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) | Stat | RHP Jake Irvin (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 1-3 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.31 / 3.04 | ERA / xERA | 4.85 / 4.59 |
| 3.26 / 2.76 | FIP / xFIP | 4.11 / 4.09 |
| 27.7 | K-BB% | 17.8 |
| 39.7 | GB% | 36.3 |
| .297 | BABIP | .263 |
| 120 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 93 | Location+ | 100 |
Brewers vs Nationals MLB Betting Preview
We have a pitcher in this game whom I generally love to fade and found a way to fade. That's Jake Irvin. So I'm going with the under on the strikeouts line for the Nationals starter today.
Jake Irvin is Under 4.5 strikeouts at -122 at DraftKings; those are the best odds out there right now.
He actually struck out nine batters in his last start against the White Sox and induced 15 whiffs in that game, which was more than he had in any start this year or in his 33 starts last year.
You have to go back to 2024 to find a start in which Irvin induced 15 or more swinging strikes.
He has also gone Over 4.5 Ks in four of his six starts this year, and the Brewers strike out at the 7th-lowest rate in baseball.
Brewers vs Nationals Pick, Betting Analysis
Irvin's strikeout rate is way up so far this year, but the numbers don't really support it. He's in the 18th percentile right now in chase rate at Baseball Savant.
This is like fading Jacob Misiorowski tonight, another zag against a trend.
Irvin has been striking out way more batters than he should be so far this season.
So I'm going Under 4.5 strikeouts on Jake Irvin.
Pick: Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122, DraftKings)
