MLB Sharp Betting Picks (Friday, July 31): Red Sox vs. Yankees, Mets vs. Braves

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Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge

Jul 31, 2020, 05:04 PM EDT

While the NBA’s restart probably gives it the top spot on many casual sports bettors’ priority lists, tonight’s baseball slate has still been a big target for sharps.

Pros have caused some significant moves on a couple of games in particular: Red Sox vs. Yankees and Mets vs. Braves.

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Red Sox vs. Yankees

7:05 p.m. ET | Ryan Weber vs. Jordan Montgomery (L)

At 10.5, this game is tied for the second-highest total on tonight’s baseball slate, but at the start of the day it was actually even higher. And while most bettors — 76% to be exact — have been happy to bet on an influx of runs in this game by taking the over, the number has fallen from 11 to 10.5 since it opened last night.

So if most folks are betting the over, why the drop?

Well, sharp bettors happen to disagree with “most folks.” In fact, since last night, seven Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of line movement caused by sharp action — have been triggered on the under, the last four of which came at the current number of 10.5 (though those also came with even- or plus-money juice).

Also worth noting is that the 24% of bets on the under have generated 51% of actual money, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — see this game staying under 10.5 runs.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 11 to 10.5)

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Mets vs. Braves

7:10 p.m. ET | Rick Porcello vs. Sean Newcomb (L)

One bet hasn’t been enough for sharps in this matchup. Let’s start with the moneyline.

Rick Porcello got shelled in his last appearance, which also came against this Braves lineup. Perhaps that’s why 68% of bettors are taking the Braves, who opened as favorites of around -148.

Now, however, Atlanta is down to just -135 at PointsBet, thanks once again to a sharp-vs.-public disagreement.

The Mets’ 32% backing has accounted for 44% of actual money, and another five SI Bet Signals have move this moneyline significantly in the direction of a pick’em.

Sharp angle: Mets (moved from +125 to +115)

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As for the total, it’s been a similar story, minus the contrarian aspect.

The over has drawn 52% of bets to this point, but those bets have made up for almost all the money (91%) hitting the total. With four more Bet Signals hitting the over, most recently at 10.5 (-103), oddsmakers have been given plenty of reason to move this number up a half run from the opener of 10.

As it stands now, the juice on the over 10.5 has been pushed to -115.

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 10 to 10.5)

[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]

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