MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Rockies-Brewers, 2 Other Monday Games
Colorado Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy (9), shortstop Trevor Story (27) and right fielder Charlie Blackmon (19). Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Monday, headlined by Rockies-Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Athletics-Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET) and Orioles-White Sox (8:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys suffered a tough luck 1-2 day on Sunday. Sharps cashed their Orioles-Twins Under without a sweat, but the Padres blew a 6-0 lead before losing in 11 innings while the Tribe held a 1-0 lead late only to fall, 4-1. No time to lament bad beats. It’s always onto the the next.
>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Full Sports Betting Glossary
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (line freeze at 9)
Average Joes see two stacked lineups going head-to-head in home-happy Fenway Park. Throw in Eduardo Rodriguez’s 5.88 ERA and it sounds like an easy over, right?
This over/under opened at 9. Currently 60% of bets are taking the over, but 55% of dollars are taking the under. This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy indicates big money coming in on a lower-scoring game.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed four steam and reverse line moves on the under, without a single conflicting over move (or buyback).
This spot has been profitable for unders historically. Anytime a team has gone “under” in two, three or four straight games, the public says “it has to regress.”
But that’s not the case. According to our Bet Labs database, betting against the public on an under streak has produced +199.95 units since 2005.
An added bonus for sharps sweating the under: The wind is blowing in at 3-5 mph, which will hopefully knock down some homers into warning track outs.
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
7:40 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Rockies (moved from +115 to +104)
After acquiring Christian Yelich and taking the Dodgers to Game 7 of the NLDS last season, the Brewers have quickly become public darlings. So of course, sharps will be betting against them this year as they’ve become overvalued and overpriced thanks to heavy Average Joe bias.
Tonight is a perfect example.
Milwaukee opened as a moderate -135 home favorite. Despite receiving nearly 65% of bets, the line has tanked to Brewers -115. What caused this line to sink like a stone?
Follow the money.
Colorado is receiving only 37% of bets but 59% of dollars, signaling big money wagers from pro bettors in its favor. We also tracked two steam moves on the Rockies, coming at COL +112 and COL +110. This overload of pro money forced oddsmakers to adjust the line bigly toward the road dogs (+115 to +104).
At one point, Colorado even reached -108 before some Brew Crew buyback hit the market. One injury to monitor is Yelich (back). He’s currently questionable. If he’s out, expect that line to spike further toward Colorado.
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox
7:40 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Orioles (moved from +120 to +116)
Baltimore (10-19) has lost three straight while Chicago (11-14) has won two in a row. Back the “better” team at home with the momentum, right?
This game opened with the White Sox listed as moderate -130 favorites. Currently 68% of bets are laying the moneyline price, yet the Southsiders have fallen to -125. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Orioles.
We noticed three separate bet signals on the O’s, with sharps crushing BAL at +126, +125 and +124. This wave of pro money forced oddsmakers to drop Baltimore from +120 to +116 despite the public loading up on Chicago. Our Sports Insights Line Predictor expects the Orioles to fall even further.
Baltimore is getting only 32% of bets but 47% of dollars, further evidence of pros buying low on the plus-money dog. The Birds are also road dogs with a high total (8.5 Over -120), a profitable spot since 2005.