MLB Sharp Betting Picks: How Pros Are Betting Red Sox vs. Mets, Royals vs. Tigers
Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Conforto
- The NBA is back tonight, but that doesn't mean sharp bettors aren't eyeing value opportunities in Thursday night's MLB slate.
- We've pinpointed a couple games sharps are getting down on: Red Sox vs. Mets at 7:07 p.m. ET and Royals vs. Tigers at 7:10 p.m. ET.
- See how the pros are betting these sides and totals, along with which sportsbooks are offering the best MLB odds tonight.
Thursday’s MLB slate is slightly less than full, but that’s not to suggest there aren’t plenty of opportunities to find betting value.
Sharps are doing just that, and they’ve had a significant effect on two games in particular: Red Sox vs. Mets and Royals vs. Tigers. Here’s how they’re betting both.
Red Sox vs. Mets
7:07 p.m. ET | Martin Perez vs. Steven Matz
Oftentimes sharp action can be sniffed out easily by comparing opening and current betting lines. Since sharp bettors have the respect of oddsmakers, they have the ability to move lines when they make bets, so when you see that a total has moved from 9 to 9.5 — like it has in this game — it’s more likely that sharp action hit the over than the under.
This isn’t one of those cases.
While it’s true that the total did rise, Sports Insights’ Bet Signals have shown no signs of sharp action contributing to the line move. Instead, four signals have been triggered on the under at 9.5, meaning pros didn’t see value on this total until after the initial rise.
As for the reason for that rise, look no further than the betting percentages. Eighty-five percent of bets accounting for 73% of money have hit the over, so there was a monetary liability that needed to be addressed. But once the number was pushed to 9.5 with even money (+100) on the under, sharps had no choice but to buy back the value.
As such, the juice on the under has fallen back just a bit to -105.
Sharp angle: Under 9.5 (moved from +100 to -105)
Royals vs. Tigers
7:10 p.m. ET | Brady Singer vs. Ivan Nova
The Royals-Tigers moneyline has been a much more straightforward example of sharp action.
After opening at a pick’em the Royals are now up to -135 at PointsBet. And while they’ve been the popular side, it’s been only a slight edge in terms of betting tickets (55%). It has, however, been a bigger edge in terms of money (77%), meaning heftier wagers — ones more likely to come from sharps — have been landing on Kansas City.
Confirming that to be the case, another six SI Bet Signals have hit the Royals, turning them into the slight favorites they are now.
Sharp angle: Royals (moved from -110 to -135)