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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Yankees-Astros, 2 Other Wednesday Games

Credit:

New York Yankees Gary Sanchez. Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games on Wednesday, headlined by Yankees-Astros (7:40 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Nationals-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET) and Mariners-Royals (8:15 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys continued their winning ways yesterday, going 2-1 with their Tuesday plays. Baseball is the ultimate grinder sport for the sharps. It’s such a long season with big peaks and valleys. The goal is to never get too high or too low, just stay the course and try to stack as many winning days together as possible.

After analyzing Wednesday’s stacked 13-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies 

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (9.5)

The Nats and Phillies combined for 16 runs last night. Tonight, two high-ERA pitchers take the mound as Jeremy Hellickson (9.00) faces Nick Pivetta (6.52). Sounds like an easy over, right?

This total opened at 9. Heavy public over betting (74%) forced oddsmakers to adjust the line up to 9.5. As soon as the hook (the extra half-run) was available, wiseguys got down hard on the under, knowing they could now cash a 5-4 game instead of push.

Using our Sports Insight Bet Signals, we noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the under. The under is getting only 26% of bets but nearly half the money, further evidence of big, sharp wagers banking on a lower scoring game.

An added bonus for sharps sweating the under: The wind is blowing in from straightaway center at 8 to 10 mph, making the under a match for one of our top Bet Labs PRO Systems (55%, +100.28 units won since 2005).

New York Yankees @ Houston Astros

7:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Yankees (moved from +123 to +106)

Recreational bettors are somewhat torn on this game. They love getting the Yankees are a plus-money price, but they’re afraid to bet against the mighty Astros at home.

Not the sharps. They’ve taken a clear side.

This line opened with Houston listed as a moderately short -133 home favorite. Currently 56% of bets and 67% of dollars are taking New York, indicating slight public support, but big smart money.

We tracked two steam moves on the Yankees, with Goodfellas crushing NYY +122 and again at +112. This overload of smart money has dropped New York all the way down to +106 — practically a pick’em.

We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Astros.

 

Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals

8:15 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 9 to 10)

It’s common to see baseball over/unders move a half-run up or down depending on the action they’re receiving. However, a full-run move is somewhat rare. You know there has to be big sharp money behind it to cause such a massive leap.

This over/under is a perfect example.

It opened at 9. Currently 62% of bets are taking the over, indicating moderate public support, but the over also accounts for more than 90% of dollars. This signals massive smart money on a high-scoring game.

Wiseguys hammered Over 9, triggering two separate steam moves.

A cherry on top for over bettors: the wind is blowing out at an absurd 15-18 mph. Sharps are hoping this turns warning-track fly balls into first row home runs.

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