MLB Sunday Expert Picks, Best Bets For Phillies vs Nationals, Mets vs Braves & More (October 2)
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor (Mets)
- It's the final Sunday of the regular season, and we've found some betting value.
- There's a full slate of games on the schedule, several of which have playoff implications.
- Continue reading for our best bets.
It's the final Sunday of the regular season and the full slate provides us with plenty of betting opportunities.
There are several games on the schedule with playoff implications, most notably the Sunday night contest between the Mets and Braves.
Our experts have broken down the games and found value on an over, a runline and a moneyline. Here's a look at our best bets for Sunday:
MLB Odds & Picks
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Tony Sartori: Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies and Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals in this Sunday matinee. Wheeler, who is 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, has fared well this season, but we're still going to take the over in this one.
Not only are we banking on Corbin to give up multiple runs, but Wheeler has been inconsistent of late and struggled against the Nationals in his career. Over his past four starts, Wheeler gave up four-plus runs twice and then just one combined run in the other two outings.
We could see the poor end of this spectrum in this matchup given the right-hander's history against Washington. Through 27 starts against the Nationals, Wheeler is 9-14 with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
Following Wheeler is one of the coldest bullpens in baseball. Since September 1, Philadelphia's relief pitching ranks 25th in the league in ERA, 27th in WHIP, 23rd in BA and 24th in wOBA.
On the other side of this matchup is Corbin. Perhaps the best fade in baseball this season, Corbin is 6-18 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP through 30 starts. His metrics are just as bad as you would expect. He's posted a .382 xwOBA, .305 xBA and .523 xSLG. As a result, we have seen eight or more runs scored in nine of Corbin's past 12 starts.
That poor pitching should continue against Philadelphia, a team that has shelled him over the past two years. Across his past six starts against the Phillies, Corbin is 0-5 with an 8.78 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP.
There were eight or more runs scored in each of those six outings. Following Corbin is an inconsistent bullpen. Since September 1, Washington's relief pitching ranks 24th in BA, 23rd in SLG and 23rd in wOBA.
Washington has been hitting right-handers well of late and the Phillies are throwing out a powerful lineup against one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
Going with the trends mentioned above, I like this game to go over eight total runs. The line opened at +100 and I'd play it down to -120.
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Jules Posner: Although James Kaprielian is a better pitcher on the road, he is still far from a good road pitcher. So far this season, he's posted a 3.96 ERA, a 4.34 FIP and a 4.91 xFIP on the road. All not very good.
On the other side, Robbie Ray has been a much stronger home pitcher this season and he'll be taking on an Oakland offense that has only posted a 77 wRC+ on the road against lefties over the past month.
Despite the fact that the Mariners have clinched a playoff berth, seeding is still up for grabs. Therefore, the Mariners are still playing meaningful games. There is an outside chance Seattle can clinch home-field advantage in the first round.
Additionally, the Mariners' offense has been heating up at homer against right handers.
Considering their huge edges both on offense and in starting pitching (this doesn't even mention the vast difference in bullpens), the Mariners' runline is the play in this match up.
The Mariners' runline opened at -115 and should be played to -140 or better. If it moves to plus money for -2.5 runs, that could be in play as well.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Tanner McGrath: Is it an overstatement to say this is the most important game of the 2022 MLB season?
This Sunday Night Baseball game has massive implications for both teams and the overall playoff picture.
After a tough first season in New York, Francisco Lindor has broken out this year. His 6.7 fWAR is sixth among all MLB players. He’s been a plus hitter (129 wRC+) while also being one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. Lindor has been worth every penny, though he now needs to find another level and help carry his team over the Braves.
Chris Bassitt gets the start for the Mets and he's one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. Bassitt’s pitched a whopping 180 innings this season and has done so with an ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP in between 3.27 and 3.64. His walk rate is fairly low and he rarely gives up home runs.
It’s also great that Bassitt can avoid barrels so effectively because he’s going to need to do so against the Braves. For what it’s worth, Bassitt has a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings against Atlanta this season and has allowed just an 87 mph average exit velocity to the hardest hitting team in the NL.
The Braves have been red hot in the second half, though I'm not sold on Charlie Morton, who is starting on Sunday night. The man once heralded as “Ground Chuck” has a 39% ground-ball rate this season.
I project these bullpens as relatively even. The offensive advantage is with Atlanta, but it’s not enough to make me lay juice with the Braves.
Simply put, I am high on Bassitt and low on Morton.
If we’re getting plus-money with the Mets, I’m playing them. Back the Mets as long as they're in plus money.
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