MLB Friday Weather: A Windy Wrigley Matinee

MLB Friday Weather: A Windy Wrigley Matinee article feature image

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cole Hamels.

  • Using the Action Network's betting tools, we've analyzed how you should approach the over/under for this afternoon's Cardinals-Cubs game at Wrigley Field.

St. Louis Cardinals (M. Mikolas) at Chicago Cubs (C. Hamels)

2:20 p.m. ET

While most teams got their afternoon games out of the way on yesterday’s getaway day, we all know the Cubs can’t resist a Friday matinee. They’ll host the rival Cardinals, with Cole Hamels taking on Miles Mikolas.

Yesterday, the Cubs were shut down by Rockies rookie Peter Lambert on a day when a slight breeze was blowing in from center field. Though the wind was blowing in, the total opened at 8 and closed at 8.5. I guess nobody trusts Lambert with their money!

In fact, the Rockies received just 30% of bets and the under got just 19% of bets. Hasn’t the public learned about Wrigley Field and wind?!

Well, hopefully some of you readers have. I’m going to teach you all the trends you need to know for today’s game … just in case they slipped your mind.

Wind In Unders

Pretty self explanatory, right?

At every ballpark known to man, the under has hit at a 54.5% rate when the wind blows in. Wrigley Field isn’t just any old ballpark, though. It’s old, there’s ivy on the wall and it’s susceptible to winds like a cornfield in Kansas or a cow in a Bill Paxton movie.

As you can see, these games have cashed at an even higher clip at America’s second-greatest and second-oldest ballpark behind Fenway.

One thing I will note — these aren’t exactly “locks” if the oddsmakers/betting market overreacts. In fact, quite the opposite.

With totals of 7.5 or higher, unders have hit at a 64.2% rate compared to an ugly 38.1% rate with totals of 7 or lower. Like any other bet you’d make, you want to get a good number. There’s always going to be a point when the value is lost and there actually comes a time to buyback or bet on the other side.

Today’s over/under opened at (you guessed it) 7 shortly before publishing. You might want to check the live odds page to see how it’s moved, as clearly it’ll be right around that magic number.

One final pitcher-specific trend to leave you with — the under has thrived when Cole Hamels pitches and winds are blowing in. At 24-12-2, Hamels is the third-best wind-in-under pitcher in our database. This includes a 5-1 mark at Wrigley.

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