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MLB Odds & Picks for Nationals vs. Mets: The Team Total to Bet on Monday

MLB Odds & Picks for Nationals vs. Mets: The Team Total to Bet on Monday article feature image
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Greg Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Juan Soto.

  • The New York Mets take on the Washington Nationals in Monday night MLB action.
  • The Nationals are due for some offensive production as Juan Soto turns it around, Nick Martin says.
  • Check out his full betting guide for this game below.

Nationals vs. Mets Odds

Nationals Odds +165
Mets Odds -185
Over/Under 8.5 (-120 / +100)
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Mets will host the Nationals for the opener of a three-game set Monday. The Mets own a dominant 16-8 record at home this season and have lost only a single series in 2022. They built upon those marks with yesterday’s massive 5-4 extra-inning win over the Phillies.

Lefty David Peterson will take the mound for the Mets in this one, and he has been surprisingly excellent to begin this season with a 2-0 record and 2.16 ERA in 25.0 innings.

He will be opposed by Erick Fedde, who has pitched to a 3.55 ERA in 45.2 IP this season. However, he has trended upward of late.

Should we expect the Mets to continue their home dominance in this spot against the lowly Nationals?

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Nationals Offense to Improve?

The Nationals would love to see some more improved play from Fedde, who has continued to trend upward after a dismal start to the season.

Fedde has pitched to an ERA of just 1.99 over his last five outings, which have actually come against significantly tough competition — the Dodgers, Brewers, Astros, Angels,and a game at Coors Field against the Rockies.

Over the last 100 ABs against Fedde, the Washington pitcher’s xwOBA has stabilized closer to league average, which is crucial for a hurler who features such a poor K-BB ratio. Fedde has allowed a SLG % of just .265 on the road this season, which is the sixth-best mark among qualified starters.

A matchup against a very disciplined Mets lineup may not be ideal, but Fedde certainly appears to have stabilized his play to an extent and may not be an obvious fade candidate as we saw early on.

The Nationals have actually produced effective results at the plate, and the greatest concern has been the alarmingly high rate of runs allowed per game of 5.18.

Washington has hit to a wOBA of .308 throughout 1,824 PAs this season, along with a wRC+ of 96. The Nats hold the 15th-best xwOBA of .325 and the 13th-best xSLG of .426.

It’s very reasonable to think those marks could hold as well with the number of players in this lineup kicking in livable results at the plate, especially as Juan Soto will likely find much more effective results moving forward.

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What to Expect From David Peterson

Peterson’s early dominance has been yet another storyline that has helped drive the Mets’ spectacular record of 32-17.

Peterson pitched to an xERA of 5.96 throughout the 2021 campaign but has managed an actual ERA of 2.16 in 2022.

However his xERA is 3.69, and we have slowly seen the majority of his expected rates rising after a scorching hot start to the season.

His QOPA has actually regressed down to 4.41 after a 4.63 average in 2021, and although that number is not a massive indication, it does seem that altogether there are a number of solid indicators that Peterson’s vastly improved results will not hold over a larger sample size.

Offensively, the Mets have performed far better than expected as well, which makes this team very scary moving forward should Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom make effective returns to action.

It’s easy to see why the Mets are now priced among the World Series favorites.

The Mets have hit to a +115 wRC+ overall this season, with a .325 wOBA. They can expect some regression based on its xSLG and xwOBA marks, but regardless, this is a tremendous start for a unit that should not need spectacular offensive production to thrive this season.

Nationals-Mets Pick

With the way I expect to see Washington bat against Peterson today, the main thing I feel is being under quantified by the betting lines is the likelihood that the Nationals score a decent amount of runs.

The Nationals appear due for better results altogether in regard to their offensive production, and it’s safe to say Peterson is likely to trend toward strong but not elite results.

I see some value on the game total to go over 8.5 and would lean Nationals as a side based upon price. But my favorite play is backing the Nationals team total to go over 3.5 at -110.

Pick: Nationals Team Total Over 3.5 (-110 | Play to -120)

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