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Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back the Bats in Philadelphia (Saturday, August 6)

Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back the Bats in Philadelphia (Saturday, August 6) article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber #12 and Rhys Hoskins #17 of the Philadelphia Phillies.

  • The Nationals look to get back on track after the Phillies took the first two games of this series.
  • Neither starting pitcher seems worth backing, so our analyst is looking at the total.
  • Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds

Nationals Odds+220
Phillies Odds-275
Over/Under9 (-105/-115)
Time6:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

For a team that continuously gets left for dead, the Philadelphia Phillies continue to remain very much alive. When Bryce Harper got injured? Dead. Swept by the Cubs at home after the All-Star break? Dead.

Now the Phillies get to enjoy a very soft portion of their schedule and if they can continue to rack up wins, they’ll be in a good spot before they head to New York to take on the Mets.

The Washington Nationals look to get back into this four game set against the Phillies after dropping the first two games. All the Nationals hope to do is play spoiler in an NL East that has gotten surprisingly competitive heading into the home stretch.

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Washington Nationals: Will Corbin’s Struggles Continue?

Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals and he’s been struggling over the past few years. He also brings an 8.73 road ERA into the match up. It is worth noting that Corbin does have a 4.26 FIP and a 3.85 xFIP heading into Saturday, which is actually pretty decent.

On the topic of decency, the Nationals have been not very decent against lefties on the road over the past month. They are considerably worse without Juan Soto and Josh Bell, so whatever data there is, is too small of a sample to know just how bad they are without their former stars.

The lone bright spot for the Nationals is that their bullpen has been okay over the past two weeks, which is less than good, but it’s better than bad.

Philadelphia Phillies: Why Does Suarez Struggle at Home?

Citizens Bank Park seems to be Ranger Suarez’s kryptonite this season. Suarez is 1-4 in nine home starts and his ERA, FIP and xFIP are all over four at home this season.

The Phillies offense has been solid against lefties at home over the past month and they’ve consistently done just enough in the absence of Bryce Harper. It’s a miracle they are still in contention without Harper, but they take pitches and slug a decent amount. They’re better than people realize.

One area of concern is the Phillies’ bullpen has been in a slump as of late, which is actually closer to their norm. They did have a stretch in July where they were pretty solid, but now it seems they’ve regressed to their mean.

Nationals-Phillies Pick

This match up has more red flags than my online dating profile. That is why it’s hard to pick who truly has an edge in this game. One pitcher has enticing peripherals, but a scary recent track record, while his opposition has been consistently underwhelming.

The over opened at nine for this match up and that seems to be the most logical play here. The entirety of the pitching situation, plus the competency of at least one of the offenses should allow both teams to contribute to reaching nine runs.

If you can find over nine at plus money it’s worth the risk, but could be played to -115 or better.

Pick: Over 9 +100

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