The Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets on Wednesday, June 18. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY and MLB.TV.
The Mets will look to snap their four-game losing skid and avoid a series loss to the rival Braves on Wednesday, but are considered heavy underdogs as Paul Blackburn (6.75 ERA, 9.1 IP) will face off against Chris Sale (2.79 ERA, 47 2/3 IP). Sale will be pitching on extra rest after having his scheduled start versus the Colorado Rockies pushed back.
Find my Mets vs Braves prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Mets vs Braves Prediction, Picks
- Mets vs Braves Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 · Play to -115)
My Braves vs. Mets best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Braves Odds, Spread, Line
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 8.5 -113o / -107u | +171 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +109 | 8.5 -113o / -107u | -212 |
Mets vs Braves Projected Pitchers
| RHP Paul Blackburn (NYM) | Stat | LHP Chris Sale (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 4-4 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 6.75/3.23 | ERA /xERA | 2.79/2.96 |
| 2.42/3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 2.73/3.04 |
| 1.71 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 9.3% | K-BB% | 24.3% |
| 45.7% | GB% | 37.1% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 112 | Location+ | 101 |
Mets vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
Blackburn will look to stabilize after a pair of ugly outings at Coors Field and versus the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays offense.
Blackburn finished the 2024 season with a 4.43 ERA and 3.96 FIP, but had a late start to the year after suffering a knee injury just prior to the start of the regular season.
While his 6.75 ERA may look alarming, it's based on a tiny sample of just 9 1/3 innings, and there has been no cause for concern with his stuff.
Blackburn holds a Pitching+ rating of 108 this season, compared to a mark of 102 last season. He also holds an xFIP of 3.98, and for the time being it seems reasonable to believe the veteran righty can prove to be as effective as last season.
The Mets' bullpen has remained a strength for them recently, as over the last 30 days, Mets relievers have an ERA of 3.15 and have struck out 9.16 batters per nine innings.
New York's offense has been among the hottest in baseball, as it holds the second-highest wRC+ in the league over the last 30 days. It ranks ninth in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching this season, and has not yet faced off against Sale this season.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
After posting a 4.84 ERA throughout March and April, Sale has trended into much better form.
The 2024 Cy Young winner holds a 1.19 ERA over his past seven starts and also holds an xFIP of 2.85 in those outings. He holds an absurd 33.7% strikeout rate in that span, and has been hard-hit just 31% of the time.
Sale's slider remains one of the nastiest pitches in baseball, and batters hold an xBA of just .147 versus it. He's continued to lean into its effectiveness even more this season, throwing it 48.5% of the time.
While Ronald Acuna Jr. has been in great form since returning on May 23rd, the Braves' lineup hasn't been overly effective as a whole. Over the past 30 days, they have hit to a wRC+ of 93 and have struck out 23.3% of the time. They rank 17th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season.
Mets vs Braves Pick, Best Bets
The Mets have found a way to get the most out of their pitching staff this season, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Blackburn join the list of Mets arms to overachieve. His stuff has graded out well so far this season, but he got hung with an ugly stat line at Coors Field and could not stabilize in his next outing versus the Rays.
Blackburn is backed by a Mets bullpen, which was projected to be a strength entering the season and has remained consistently solid throughout the campaign.
Sale has been nearly untouchable since his shaky first month of the season, striking out batters at an absurd rate and allowing very little hard contact. He finished the 2024 season with a 2.38 ERA, and outside of a few bad starts at the beginning of the year, he has remained comparably dominant.
Given the possibility that Blackburn can trend towards league-average results, a total of 8.5 looks too high for this matchup, and there appears to be value in betting the under at -105.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 · Play to -115)
