The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Mets on Wednesday, July 9, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Mets have stabilized with wins in five of their last six matchups, including an exciting extra-innings win in Tuesday's series opener. Juan Soto has led the Mets' offensive resurgence during that span after a bumpy month of June.
New York is favored to win once again on Wednesday as David Peterson (3.18 ERA, 102 IP) will face off against Tomoyuki Sugano (4.44 ERA, 93 1/3 IP).
Find my Mets vs Orioles prediction for Wednesday night below.
My Mets vs Orioles Prediction
- Mets vs Orioles picks: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases -110 (Bet365, Play to -120)
My Mets vs Orioles best bet is Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Orioles Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 10 -105o / -115u | -155 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 10 -105o / -115u | +130 |
Mets vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | W-L | 6-5 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.18/4.19 | ERA /xERA | 4.44/5.78 |
| 3.51/3.64 | FIP / xFIP | 5.25/4.58 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | 9.6% |
| 56.7% | GB% | 41.6% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 100 | Location+ | 104 |
Nick Martin’s Mets vs Orioles Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Soto on Fire
Having struggled to cash in with runners in scoring position throughout June, the Mets have gotten off to a hot start in July and could be turning the corner offensively. New York holds a wRC+ of 126 in seven games in July and holds a hard-hit rate of 37.8%.
Dating back to the start of last season, the Mets rank fourth in wRC+ and sixth in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. Thanks to the addition in the offseason, it was expected to be among the league's best offensive teams. Still, due to a combination of a somewhat underwhelming start from Soto and an 18th-ranked OPS with runners in scoring position, they have been less dominant than expected.
Soto has been swinging one of the league's hottest bats recently and should have a good chance of another productive day in a matchup against Sugano.
Throughout his last 50 PAs, Soto has slugged .674 and holds an OPS of 1.123. In those at-bats, he also owns a hard-hit rate of 65% and an expected batting average of .343. He got off to a good start in this series with three hits in Tuesday's matchup, which all came on balls with exit velocities of 106 or higher.
Soto has slugged .565 versus right-handed pitchers this season, and slugged .578 versus righties in 2024.
Peterson has remained in steady form recently, posting a 4.02 ERA and 3.96 xFIP across his last five starts. He holds an xERA of 4.19 and an xFIP of 3.64 this season, though his Stuff+ rating of 88 and Pitching+ rating of 94 suggest he should be somewhat more hittable moving forward.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Sugano's Slide
The Orioles' top bullpen arms have been used quite heavily over the last five days, and manager Tony Mansolino would definitely love to receive a better start from Sugano, who has been in awful form recently.
Sugano has only managed to get through 22 2/3 innings in his last five outings combined and has struggled to an 8.87 ERA and 5.49 xFIP in those matchups. He also has managed a strikeout-minus-walk rate of just 7.8% during his last five starts, and has allowed an xBA of .348.
Left-handed batters have slugged .489 versus Sugano this season, and he's allowed a 5.88 FIP to lefties. He has also walked just 4.0% of left-handed batters this season.
The Orioles have spent the majority of the season playing with numerous players from their Opening Day lineup on the IL, which has been one major reason for their surprisingly poor results this season. They still have several notable pieces on the IL, including Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle and Jorge Mateo, as well as a slew of quality pitchers.
Over the last month of play, the Orioles rank 13th in wRC+ and 11th in slug rate. They hold the eighth-highest hard-hit rate in baseball during that span.
Throughout the last two seasons, Camden Yards has played as the fourth-best ballpark for run creation and the fourth easiest for hitting home runs.
Mets vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
A high total of 10 seems well warranted for this matchup, and we should see another high-scoring affair after an eventful 7-6 game on Tuesday in which these two offenses combined for 20 hits.
Sugano has been in dreadful form lately, and his recent underlying metrics suggest he is unlikely to turn things around in the near future. The Orioles may be forced to try to get some length out of Sugano in this matchup, given the state of their bullpen, and it seems reasonable to expect a lofty offensive output from the Mets in this matchup.
Soto has been on fire recently and appears to have a great chance of continuing his torrid run of production in this matchup. Sugano doesn't walk many batters and has rarely walked lefties specifically, which is a positive factor in backing Soto to record over 1.5 total bases in this matchup.
In a game where Soto has a good chance of getting five ABs, I see value in backing him to record over 1.5 total bases at -110, and would bet it down to -120.
Pick: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases -110 (Bet365, Play to -120)
Moneyline
The Mets' offense should have a good chance of doing some significant damage off Sugano early in this matchup. It could also take advantage of a withered Orioles bullpen after Sugano exits the game.
Peterson has looked shaky enough recently that I'm not quite willing to lay -148 to bet New York in this matchup, but if better prices became available, I would.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm making no bets on the Spread.
Over/Under
I'm making no bets on the Total.
