The Detroit Tigers host the New York Mets on September 3, 2025. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mets vs Tigers Prediction
- Mets vs Tigers picks: Tigers Moneyline (-102 | Play to -110)
My Mets vs Tigers best bet is the Tigers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Tigers Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Tony Sartori’s Mets vs Tigers Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
It’s time to sell high on Clay Holmes. Despite solid surface-level stats, Holmes’ underlying metrics suggest he may struggle down the stretch.
This season, the right-hander owns a 4.35 expected ERA (xERA) and a .257 expected batting average (xBA). Holmes also ranks in the bottom third of the league in strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, New York may struggle to provide Holmes with run support against Detroit’s Casey Mize. Through 34 combined plate appearances against Mize, the Mets current roster has a mere .331 expected slugging percentage (xSLG).
On top of that, Mize’s analytics are much stronger than Holmes’.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
The 2018 No. 1 overall draft pick has finally found some footing in 2025. An All-Star this year, Mize is 12-5 with a 3.95 ERA through 23 starts.
As mentioned above, it’s Mize’s underlying metrics that are most impressive. The right-hander owns a 3.76 xERA and ranks in the 81st percentile in walk rate.
He is the superior starting pitcher in this matchup and also outranks Holmes in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Following Mize is a bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in ERA.
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support. This season, the Tigers rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
Mets vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
It’s worth taking a shot on Detroit at -102 in this matchup. The starting pitching edge goes to the Tigers, and the hitting disparity is minimal as both teams rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
That leaves the bullpen as New York’s lone advantage in this contest. However, Detroit’s relief corps also ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, leaving the biggest margin in this matchup between Mize and Holmes.
The Tigers have also been dominant at Comerica Park this year, while the Mets are well below .500 on the road.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-102 | Play to -110)
