The New York Yankees (26-19) host the New York Mets (29-17) on Sunday Night Baseball on May 18, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Things have worked out perfectly for this week's edition of Sunday Night Baseball, as the Subway Series will conclude with a rubber match featuring a tremendous matchup between David Peterson (3.05 ERA, 44 1/3 IP) and Max Fried (1.11 ERA, 56 2/3 IP).
Find my Yankees vs Mets predictions in my Sunday Night Baseball preview below, plus the latest MLB lines, probable pitchers, injury reports and more.
Mets vs Yankees Predictions, Picks
- Mets vs Yankees pick: Max Fried to Record a Win +135 (Bet365, Play to +125)
My Mets vs Yankees best bet for Sunday Night Baseball is Max Fried to record a win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Mets vs New York Yankees Odds, Lines
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9.5 +105o / -125u | +135 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9.5 +105o / -125u | -160 |
Mets vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 6-0 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.05/4.41 | ERA /xERA | 1.11/3.59 |
| 3.56/3.33 | FIP / xFIP | 2.85/3.55 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 14.0% | K-BB% | 17.1% |
| 55.8% | GB% | 51.6% |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
Mets vs Yankees Preview, Sunday Night Baseball Prediction
Mets Betting Preview: Peterson Due for Regression
After Griffin Canning allowed two earned runs across 5 1/3 innings in Saturday's 3-2 win, Mets starters have combined for a 2.88 ERA in 234 2/3 innings this season.
With a 3.05 ERA across 44 1/3 innings of work, David Peterson has actually raised the starting staff's ERA this season. Therefore, it's no surprise the Mets currently sit on top of a highly competitive NL East division.
Peterson does appear to be due for negative regression based on the majority of underlying statistics.
He holds an xERA of 4.41 this season and a 3.56 FIP. He's been hard hit 51.9% of the time and has a K-BB% of 14.0, but has stranded baserunners at a career-high rate of 79.8%.
In his last three starts, Peterson has been hard hit 56% of the time and allowed an xBA of .313. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 88 and a Pitching+ rating of 95 in those three outings combined.
The Mets offense has hit left-handed pitching quite effectively this season and will provide a tough matchup for Max Fried on Sunday.
They hold a wRC+ of 120 versus LHP and own a third-ranked BB/K ratio of 0.55. Over the last two weeks, they have a wRC+ of 114 and rank fourth in BB/K ratio.
Yankees Betting Preview: Cy Young-Worthy Season for Fried
If the season ended today, Max Fried would be a near lock to win the AL Cy Young Award, having pitched to a league-leading 1.11 ERA over 56 2/3 innings and sporting a record of 6-0.
He's currently priced as the fourth favorite in the betting markets at +500, as oddsmakers believe Tarik Skubal, Hunter Brown, or Garrett Crochet may outperform Fried from here on out.
It's no surprise the underlying metrics suggest Fried could come down to earth moving forward, but they still indicate he is pitching at a very high level, as he holds an xERA of 3.59 and an xFIP of 3.55.
His Pitching+ rating is up to 109 compared to last year's mark of 104, and he holds a WHIP of just 0.94.
In his last four starts, Fried has allowed an ERA of just 0.72 and an xFIP of 3.41. He's struck out 23% of batters in those outings and allowed an xBA of .235.
The Yankees currently hold a league-leading wRC+ of 133 and have slugged .481 as a team. They have been absolutely dominant versus left-handed pitching this season, as they hold a wRC+ of 150 and have slugged .517.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. appears to be drawing closer to a return from an oblique injury but will remain sidelined in this matchup.
Mets vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
While Fried will surely begin to post slightly less dominant results moving forward, his underlying profile still suggests he will be one of the AL's best starters this year.
Fried has also outperformed his xERA in six straight seasons, including 2025, which suggests he may not regress as much as the numbers indicate.
Peterson has been much less effective recently and could struggle versus a Yankees team that has been absolutely dominant against left-handed pitching.
At a price of +135, we are getting a good number to back Fried to get his seventh win of the season.
While he is certainly capable of managing another excellent start, the chances he gets a decent amount of run support seem to be undervalued, and he will receive a long leash to work with, considering the nature of this matchup.
Pick: Max Fried to Record a Win +135 (Bet365, Play to +125)
Moneyline
At -165, the Yankees would be my lean in terms of a side, but I prefer taking the much longer price to back Fried recording the win.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Yankees to over -1.5 at +125 would be my lean.
Over/Under
A total of 9 looks fair, given the expected conditions at Yankee Stadium tonight and that both starters could be slightly less dominant moving forward.
Mets vs Yankees Betting Trends
Yankees vs Mets Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y. |
| Date: | Sunday, May 18 |
| Time: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | ESPN |
Mets vs Yankees Injuries
Mets Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Frankie Montas | Right lat (60-day IL) |
| LHP Sean Manaea | Right oblique (60-day IL) |
| OF Jose Siri | Left tibia fracture (10-day IL) |
| LHP A.J. Minter | Left lat (60-day IL) |
| OF Jesse Winker | Right oblique (10-day IL) |
Yankees Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| DH Giancarlo Stanton | Torn tendons in both elbows (10-day IL) |
| 3B Oswaldo Cabrera | Left ankle fracture (10-day IL) |
| RHP Marcus Stroman | Left knee inflamation (15-day IL) |
| INF Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Right oblique (10-day IL) |
