The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets for Sunday Night Baseball on June 22, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
After scoring just 16 combined runs throughout a seven-game losing skid entering Saturday's matchup, the Mets came to life with seven home runs in an 11-4 blowout. The Phillies and Mets now enter Sunday's rubber match tied atop the NL East. David Peterson (2.60 ERA, 86 2/3 IP) will face off against Jesus Luzardo (4.41 ERA, 47 IP).
Find my Sunday Night Baseball best bet and Mets vs Phillies prediction below, plus same-game parlay picks.
Mets vs Phillies Predictions, Parlay Picks
- Jesus Luzardo Over 2.5 Earned Runs
- Mets First Five Innings Moneyline
Parlay odds: +210 (Bet365)
Considering how badly Jesus Luzardo has struggled recently, a price of +210 appears to hold value for this two-leg parlay.
Luzardo is more than capable of offering better results than he has lately, but the Mets' scrappy lineup provides a tough matchup to get right.
If he is to offer another blowup, this bet has an excellent chance of cashing with David Peterson on the mound.
Mets vs Phillies Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -110o / -110u | -103 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -195 | 9 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Mets vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | W-L | 6-3 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 2.60/3.75 | ERA /xERA | 4.41/3.54 |
| 3.06/3.45 | FIP / xFIP | 2.87/3.22 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.43 |
| 12.8 | K-BB% | 19.1 |
| 57.8 | GB% | 42.2 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 100 | Location+ | 110 |
Mets vs Phillies Preview, Predictions
Mets Betting Preview
With runners in scoring position, the Mets rank 29th in batting average and 22nd in OPS this season. Despite their struggles to drive in baserunners, the Mets still rank 12th in runs scored per game this season.
Hitting with RISP was a massive issue for the Mets during their seven-game losing streak, but if they are able to start cashing in baserunners at a higher rate, they should be one of baseball's most productive teams.
Over the last month, New York owned the second-best wRC+ rating in baseball and ranked third in OPS. It put up the highest hard-hit rate in baseball at 37.9%, and ranked fourth in BB/K ratio.
The Mets hold lesser splits versus left-handed pitching this season, as they hold a wRC+ of 100.
Luzardo has started eight times versus the Mets in his career and holds a record of 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA over 44 2/3 innings. Pete Alonso has hit just .091 versus Luzardo across 22 ABs, and Francisco Lindor has hit .222 across 18 ABs.
The Mets' starting rotation holds an ERA of 3.07 across 404 1/3 innings of work, which is the best mark in MLB.
Peterson has had a dominant start to the season with a 2.60 ERA throughout his first 14 starts, after finishing 2024 with a 2.90 ERA in 121 innings pitched.
His underlying profile is solid, with an xFIP of 3.45 and an xERA of 3.75. Peterson has generated ground balls 57.8% of the time and allowed only 0.42 HR/9.
Over his last five starts, he has an ERA of 2.23, a 3.29 xFIP, and a ground-ball rate of 59.8%.
Phillies Betting Preview
Based on his talent and likely career development at age 27, Luzardo seems like a savvy acquisition by Sam Fuld and the Phillies' management team.
He had an excellent start to the season, with a 1.94 ERA across his first seven starts, but has fallen apart since then, with a 6.86 ERA.
In his last five starts, things have gotten even worse for Luzardo. He has an ERA of 10.65 across 23 2/3 innings.
The underlying results from those outings suggest he is due to stabilize to some extent as he holds an xFIP of 3.41 and a .268 xBA, but stranding only 52.3% of baserunners and allowing 1.90 HR/9 has led to some horrid results.
The Phillies have been hard on left-handed pitching again this season. They rank ninth with a wRC+ of 107 and fourth in hard-hit rate.
They have played 15 games since Bryce Harper returned to the IL, and have remained strong offensively with a wRC+ of 110 and a .755 OPS.
Mets vs Phillies Moneyline Prediction, Sunday Night Baseball Best Bet
Luzardo's stuff has still graded out well recently, and his underlying results suggest he is not going to be a drastically below-average starter for much longer.
Even still, it's hard to pass up the opportunity to fade Luzardo right now as a favorite as he faces off versus a red-hot starter in Peterson, who's backed by a lineup that is due for better results.
At their current price of +105, there looks to be value backing Peterson and the Mets to earn an important series win in this excellent matchup.
Pick: Mets Moneyline +104 (DraftKings | Play to -105)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Mets to win as slight underdogs is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
This looks like a good spot to back the Mets covering the reverse run-line at +155, looking to target another blowup start from Luzardo, who has allowed 25 earned runs in his last four outings.
Over/Under
A high total of 9.5 looks fair given this starting pitching matchup and the fact that Citizens Bank Park is expected to hold batter-friendly conditions this evening.
Mets vs Phillies Betting Trends
Mets vs Phillies Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pa. |
| Date: | Sunday, June 22 |
| Time: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | ESPN |
