The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees on September 3, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.
AL contenders New York and Houston will play the second game of a three-game series on Wednesday, with Will Warren (4.30 ERA, 136 IP) set to face off against Jason Alexander (4.61 ERA, 54 and 2/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Astros Prediction
- Yankees vs Astros pick: Over 9
My Yankees vs Astros best bet is on the over total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Astros Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9 -110o / -110u | +105 |
Yankees vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Will Warren (NYY) | Stat | RHP Jason Alexander (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.30/4.38 | ERA /xERA | 4.61/4.72 |
| 3.88/3.87 | FIP / xFIP | 4.85/4.34 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 14.8% | K-BB% | 10.8% |
| 43.2% | GB% | 46.2% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 79 |
| 99 | Location+ | 105 |
Nick Martin’s Yankees vs Astros Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Seek Revenge vs Alexander
The Yankees are in the midst of a 15-5 tear, which has them sitting only 2.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in what has become a highly competitive three-team dogfight for the AL East crown. During those 20 matchups, they have averaged 6.5 runs scored per game and hold a wRC+ of 144.
While the Yankees lineup has been incredibly productive of late, they did struggle in their previous matchup versus Alexander on August 10th, managing only one hit and zero earned runs across six innings. While Alexander was successful in the previous matchup between these two sides, New York may not be overly likely to struggle with a fairly mediocre righty given that it holds the highest wRC+ in the league versus right-handed starters over the last two seasons.
Over the last month the Yankees hold a wRC+ of 120 versus right-handed pitchers and hold a weighted on-base percentage of .342. They hold the second-highest hard-hit rate during that span and rank fifth in BB/K ratio.
Since the All-Star break Warren has found success where it counts in managing an ERA of 3.54; however, the majority of his underlying metrics from that time frame are not as convincing. He holds an xFIP of 4.57 throughout those eight outings, and a strikeout minus walk-rate of 11.7%.
His Stuff+ has dropped to 94 compared to an average of 100 throughout the entirety of the season, and his Pitching+ rating is down from 105 to 99.
Four of Warren's last five outings have been quite successful; however, only one of those matchups came versus a better-than-average offense being the Boston Red Sox, who managed seven hits and five earned runs off of Warren.
New York's high-powered bullpen has begun to stabilize recently after a horrid stretch of play following the trade deadline, but still ranks 16th in ERA since August 3rd.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Banking on Alexander Again
While the Astros offense has offered below-average results versus right-handed pitching recently, Yordan Alvarez's productive return to the lineup provides an obvious cause for optimism. Since returning on July 26th, Alvarez has slugged .500 and holds an OPS of 1.019.
Alvarez rested in Tuesday's matchup as the Astros continue to ease their superstar slugger back into the fold but should be in Wednesday's starting lineup.
Alexander has been surprisingly effective since being recalled from Triple-A on August 24th, pitching to an ERA of 3.18 across 39 and 2/3 innings of work.
However, the majority of his underlying metrics from that span suggest he is still pitching at a below-average level. He's been hard-hit 49% of the time and allowed an xBA of .281 since returning. He owns a Stuff+ of 78 and a Pitching+ of 89 in that span, as well as a strikeout minus walk-rate of 15.1%.
Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
Alexander appears to be quite fortunate to have managed such a strong ERA since being recalled on July 26th, and the Yankees red-hot lineup should be able to manage plenty of hard contact in this matchup versus a soft-throwing righty.
While the Yankees should have a good chance of authoring another productive day at the plate, it may take a lofty output to earn a win in this matchup given that Warren's recent form also may be overvalued.
In a matchup that will see two unconvincing starters facing off against a pair of high-quality lineups, a total of 9 appears to be too low. At -120 or better I see value backing Wednesday's matchup to feature over 9 runs.
Pick: Over 9 (-110, Fanatics; Play to -120)
Moneyline
There does not appear to be value in betting either side to win this matchup. While I'm hopeful that the Yankees will get to Alexander this time around, Warren's recent form also has not been overly convincing, and he could struggle with an Astros lineup that will likely be more productive the rest of the way.
Run Line (Spread)
There does not appear to be value in betting either side to cover the run-line.
Over/Under
As outlined, betting this game to feature over 9 runs is my favorite play from this matchup.
Yankees vs Astros Betting Trends
