The Miami Marlins host the New York Yankees on August 3, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on YES.
Read our Yankees vs Marlins prediction and MLB over/under pick below.
My Yankees vs Marlins Prediction
- Yankees vs Marlins Picks: Under 8 (-102, BetMGM)
Yankees vs Marlins Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -118o / -102u | -115 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -118o / -102u | -105 |
Yankees vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Gil (NYY) | Stat | RHP Edward Cabrera (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 4-5 |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| — | ERA / xERA | 3.35 / 3.84 |
| — | FIP / xFIP | 3.69 / 3.70 |
| — | WHIP | 1.23 |
| — | K-BB% | 15.9% |
| — | GB% | 47.3% |
| — | Stuff+ | 105 |
| — | Location+ | 101 |
Tanner McGrath’s Yankees vs Marlins Preview
This game activated one of our Bet Labs Systems, powered by our own Evan Abrams.
Series Unders Off Low-Scoring Games focuses on regular-season MLB games where both teams are entering the second game or later in a series after producing minimal offense in their prior outing. When teams come off one- or two-game streaks of low scoring, the market can overcorrect or undervalue continued offensive stagnation.
This model anticipates that trend to persist, betting on the Under when recent results and situational rhythm point to a slow-paced, low-output environment.
This system has been profitable since 2005, but even better, it’s 63-41-1 this year (61% win rate, 16% ROI).
The Marlins squeaked by the Yankees 2-0 on Friday and will go for a series sweep on Sunday. The Fish have been playing awesome ball, posting a 29-12 record since June 1st, primarily behind much improved pitching (team 3.78 xFIP over the past month, sixth). I trust Edward Cabrera to continue that trend, as he’s piecing together a career year (3.35 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 15.9% K-BB, 105 Stuff+).
Meanwhile, the Yankees are in free-fall, posting a 15-17 record since June 1. A big reason why is that the offense is pitiful with Aaron Judge sidelined, posting a 93 wRC+ over the past fortnight (24th).
The Miami bullpen has been running well (3.88 xFIP over the past two weeks, 11th), while the Yankees' bullpen looks like an uber-dangerous unit after the trade deadline acquisitions of Camilo Doval and David Bednar. For what it’s worth, Doval, Bednar, and closer Devin Williams were able to rest on Saturday, meaning New York’s three highest-leverage guys will be available for Sunday’s game.
I love the Under in this matchup. The only worry is that the Marlins’ white-hot lineup (119 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers over the past month, fourth) wreaks havoc against Luis Gil in his season debut. But I’m willing to take that risk.
Pick: Under 8 (-102, BetMGM)
