The New York Mets host the New York Yankees on May 17, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are -108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Mets Prediction
- Yankees vs Mets Pick: Over 8 (play to 8.5)
My Yankees vs Mets best bet is on game totals. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Mets Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +149 | 8 -118o / -102u | -112 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -181 | 8 -118o / -102u | -107 |
- Yankees vs Mets moneyline: Yankees -112, Mets -108
- Yankees vs Mets over/under: 8 (-118 / -102)
- Yankees vs Mets spread: Yankees -1.5 (+149), Mets +1.5 (-181)
Yankees vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| RHP Elmer Rodríguez (NYY) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.19 / 7.45 | ERA / xERA | 3.10 / 3.54 |
| 5.41 / 7.03 | FIP / xFIP | 3.67 / 3.69 |
| -6.8% | K-BB% | 14.8% |
| 44.8% | GB% | 41.2% |
| .345 | BABIP | .269 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 89 | Location+ | 106 |
Yankees vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Yankees vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
The Yankees made a late pitching swap, calling up Elmer Rodriguez for the spot start instead of stud left-hander Ryan Weathers.
Rodriguez posted a 5.19 ERA in his prior two starts with the big league club. Both starts came against the Rangers, and he failed to finish five innings, but limited the damage to two or three runs. However, he walked eight hitters in 8 ⅔ innings. That won’t work at this level.
The sample is so small that it’s tough to know what Rodriguez truly is.
However, he has a 1.39 ERA in five outings in AAA this year. Prospect lists had him tabbed in the top-75 entering the year. I don’t expect him to perform this poorly, but walking 8.31 batters per nine is an easy way to get sent back to the minors.
The Yankees' offense is dangerous every night. In May, they have a 123 wRC+, the second best in the league, only behind the Pirates. They rank top-five in two pivotal categories: Walk rate (12.2%) and home runs (19).
The power supply from Aaron Judge and Ben Rice has been huge for this Yankees lineup, which is still without Giancarlo Stanton. Judge and Rice each have four homers in May, and both are in the top five in the AL in long balls.
The best hitter for the Yankees this month? It's actually Cody Bellinger, who's 16% walk rate and 9% strikeout rate make him the perfect complement to Judge and Rice.
In the bullpen, things can get hairy. David Bednar and Tim Hill are the only reliable arms. Bednar is the closer, and Hill usually pitches in lanes where he can face lefty hitters. The inconsistency between Camilo Doval and Fernando Cruz has complicated the bridge to Bednar.
The Mets will send their ace, Freddy Peralta, to the mound for the series finale. Peralta has performed well in Queens, boasting a 3.10 ERA. However, his 3.54 xERA and 3.67 FIP indicate some potential regression.
Peralta has always been good at striking hitters out. He posted a double-digit K/9 in all of his MLB seasons except for 2022, where he posted a 9.92. This year, his K/9 is a 9.12, and his whiff rate is just 23% — the lowest of his career by over 3%.
Nothing has changed about Peralta’s approach. He still throws his four-seamer close to 60% of the time, while mixing in a change-up and curveball. The lack of swing and miss stuff is a concern for a pitcher who made his mark by striking out hitters.
In May, the Mets are just 20th in MLB with an 88 wRC+. The tide is turning, though, as they scored 5+ runs in three of their past six games.
I think it's safe to say Juan Soto is back. For him to go three weeks with a wRC+ below 80 is unlike the best hitters in the league. He reached base twice and homered in the Mets' loss to the Yankees on Friday and reached base in all four of his plate appearances on Saturday.
Soto's patience will give the other Mets hitters a chance to hit with runners on. That will give them a chance to rattle the confidence of the young Rodriguez.
I'm rolling with the over here. Eight runs feel light for a pair of pitchers who can derail their own outings.
Peralta can be dominant, but I don't buy into the version of him with a single-digit K/9. Meanwhile, Rodriguez is a work in progress. His sinker can erase baserunners, but not when more than two runners get on per inning. Both teams will have chances to score and push this total over.
Pick: Over 8 (play to 8.5)
