The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees on October 5, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 4:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Yankees vs Blue Jays picks: Yankees -144 (play to -150)
My Yankees vs Blue Jays best bet is Yankees -144 (play to -150). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -150 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +125 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (NYY) | Stat | RHP Trey Yesavage (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 19-5 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 4.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.86/3.40 | ERA /xERA | 3.21/4.14 |
| 3.07/3.41 | FIP / xFIP | 2.35/3.23 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 1.43 |
| 3.7 | K-BB% | 2.3 |
| 52.4 | GB% | 53.8 |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 102 | Location+ | 93 |
Sean Paul’s Yankees vs Blue Jays Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: No Pressure, Kid
Toronto opted for rookie Trey Yesavage to pitch game two instead of veteran Shane Bieber. I’ll guess that has more to do with putting Yesavage, who’s only thrown in three major league games, in a more comfortable spot for a postseason outing.
Yesavage is a fascinating young arm, but his command remains murky. He walked multiple batters in all three big league outings — and nobody is more patient than the Yankees. Yesavage was a bit unlucky in his three outings, posting a 3.21 ERA with a 4.14 xERA and a 2.35 FIP. He's a heavy strikeout and walk pitcher, and that could really boost his pitch count, unlike Kevin Gausman, who worked economically through the Yankees order.
The Blue Jays are better than anyone at putting the ball in play and making pitchers work. That led to a very brief 2 2/3 inning outing from New York starter Luis Gil, which makes Max Fried going deep of the utmost importance.
Although the Blue Jays don't sell out for power, they can still hit for power. Vlad Guerrero Jr. snapped a nearly month-long homerless drought in game one, and Alejandro Kirk went yard for a fifth straight game. If Toronto takes down the Yankees, who have their ace on the hill, it'll need big performances from Kirk and Vlad Jr.
They finished September with a 103 wRC+ (11th in MLB). And the Jays' approach remained intact, walking at an 8.1% rate (16th), while striking out just 19.2 of the time (third-best). Expect the home team to press the action and put the ball in play.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Matchup Favors the Pinstripes
In a must-win game (to some extent), the Yankees will hand Fried the ball. He dazzled in his first playoff outing for the Yankees, tossing 6 1/3 scoreless innings. At times, his command faltered, leading to three walks.
Fried faced Toronto four times in the regular season — holding them to more than three runs in three of the outings and no runs in the other. I still like how Fried lines up versus this lineup. He wants teams to hit the ball weakly, and the Blue Jays will put the ball in play. Pitchers who hunt for strikeouts tend to struggle with Toronto, but Fried is the type of arm who could flummox an elite lineup.
New York went with a very aggressive approach versus a top-tier strike thrower in Gausman. And that approach went awry until the 6th inning, but the Yankees managed just one run with bases loaded and no outs. The trio of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Ben Rice came up small in the biggest moment.
I just love how the Yankees line up versus Yesavage. In general, I prefer the Yankees against right-handed arms, as it allows Rice and Trent Grisham to be more comfortable. Those two are key cogs in New York, posting a 10.6% walk rate in September. It would be wise for the Yankees to use their plate patience to their advantage and make Yesavage, who's a bit green, work hard.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Blue Jays are now 7-1 in home games versus the Yankees this season. So, that trend alone could be enough for many to take the Jays, but we'll go against the grain here. You just don't know what a rookie pitcher will look like in their first postseason outing. And it's not like Yesavage faced many good offensive teams — he faced the Rays twice and the Royals. It'll be a different animal facing the Yankees.
Now, there's some credence to the theory that the Yankees are at a disadvantage, having not seen Yesavage. But the playoffs are a different beast.
I'm betting on Fried, who posted a 6-0 record with a 1.55 ERA in his last seven regular-season outings, to shut Toronto down in game two.
Pick: Yankees -144 (play to -150)
Moneyline
I like the Yankees here.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass.
Over/Under
Pass.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Betting Trends
