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MLB Odds & Picks for Orioles vs. Mariners: Unpopular Selection to Make in Seattle

MLB Odds & Picks for Orioles vs. Mariners: Unpopular Selection to Make in Seattle article feature image

Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Jesse Winker.

  • The Mariners are favored (-155) tonight at home against the Orioles (+130).
  • George Kirby will start for the hosts opposite Tyler Wells, who has pitched well for a surging Baltimore club.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Orioles vs. Mariners Odds

Orioles Odds+130
Mariners Odds-155
Over/Under7.5 (-120 / +100)
Time10:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Orioles are beginning to hit their stride, entering a three-game set in Seattle fresh off a series win over the White Sox, but what they’re about to encounter could stop them right in their tracks.

Seattle has won five of the last six and will expect a great start from George Kirby on Monday night. Should we, though? Let’s get into this one.

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The Orioles Are … Surging?

As noted above, the Orioles are playing some excellent ball at the moment. They’ve won 10 of 15 games and just took three of four off the White Sox over the weekend. In the process, they managed to keep up their hot pitching and have now yielded just 11 runs in their last seven games.

Tyler Wells will look to keep the train on the tracks here, and so far things have gone pretty well for him. In 14 starts this season, he’s registered a 3.34 ERA a season after a mark of 4.11 in 57 innings out of the bullpen. Considering he owned a 3.60 xERA last season and a 3.63 this season, it’s fair to say at this point — 121 2/3 innings into his career — we can confidently say Wells is not a liability on the hill.

Speaking of the metrics, it should be said that the Orioles are having a fine season at the plate. They’re 11th in barrel rate and eighth in hard-hit rate, consistently finding quality on their swings. They’re down in 25th in wRC+ over the past two weeks and have been a disaster with a low 5.3% walk rate and a fat 26.6% strikeout rate. With that said, they’re still top eight in barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Kirby Thriving as Mariners Rookie

It’ll be another George Kirby Day at T-Mobile Park on Monday, and so far that’s brought the Mariners a ton of joy. The youngster owns a 3.12 ERA through 49 innings this season, walking just 3% of hitters and also owning a slightly above-average 23.3% strikeout rate.

Kirby’s season has been fine, but there are still some areas of concern. His .408 xwOBA on contact is far too high for a guy who’s only going to strike out hitters at a roughly league-average pace. He’s also given up hard-hit balls at a 43.2% clip, and as a result of all of this has an expected ERA of 3.84. It should probably be a little higher given all that we’ve said, and his 10.1% barrel rate.

Speaking of these numbers, the Mariners themselves are 16th in barrel rate and dead last in hard-hit rate over the last two weeks. They own a league-average 100 wRC+ in that time, thanks to a high 10.4% walk rate and some timely contact. It’s not likely to be sustainable given Seattle’s 23.5% strikeout rate, and I’d expect regression to set in soon.

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Orioles-Mariners Pick

There are too many holes in the Mariners right now for me to lay this kind of juice with them. Seattle’s offense has been mediocre and will likely fall victim to the red-hot Wells, while the Orioles have actually hit the ball excellently of late and all season long.

I’m going to do something unpopular and fade George Kirby. His offense simply hasn’t done enough behind him, and he’s had his issues this season despite a low ERA.

Pick: Orioles +130

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