The Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 4, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Mariners are favored by -162 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +136 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Mariners Pick: Dominic Canzone Home Run
My Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet is on Dom Canzone's home run prop Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +136 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -162 |
- Blue Jays vs Mariners moneyline: Blue Jays +136, Mariners -162
- Blue Jays vs Mariners over/under: 7.5 (-122 / -100)
- Blue Jays vs Mariners spread: Mariners -1.5 (+140), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)
Blue Jays vs Mariners Probable Pitchers
| Shane Bieber (RHP, TOR) | Stat | Logan Gilbert (RHP, SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 6-5 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 6.00 / 16.97 | ERA / xERA | 3.42 / 3.84 |
| 8.89 / 5.46 | FIP / xFIP | 3.60 / 3.53 |
| 4.7% | K-BB% | 21.5% |
| 27.3% | GB% | 35.0% |
| .345 | BABIP | .262 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners MLB Betting Preview
Until Shane Bieber shows signs of life, I’ll continue fading him.
The right-hander has battled injuries over the past three seasons, making just 11 starts. But this year, the underlying indicators are especially concerning. His average fastball velocity has dipped to just 92 MPH, and nearly every advanced metric is pointing in the wrong direction.
Across nine innings, Bieber has surrendered six barrels, good for an alarming 18.2% rate. His expected numbers are equally ugly, including a 17.03 xERA, .415 xBA, and .831 xSLG.
Typically a ground-ball pitcher, Bieber has seen that profile disappear this season. Just 27.3% of balls in play against him have been on the ground, while a career-worst 42.4% have been hit in the air.
When hitters are consistently making hard contact and elevating the baseball, home runs follow. That’s been the case for Bieber, who has already allowed four home runs in two starts.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
Long gone are the days of Cal Raleigh being a viable option in this spot, but there is another Mariners bat I’m happy to back, and he’s gone quite under the radar: Dominic Canzone.
While he may not be a household name, Canzone’s underlying metrics are elite.
Among qualified hitters, Canzone ranks in the 94th percentile or better in both barrel rate (15.7%) and xSLG (.536). He also leads the Mariners in xSLG, hard-hit rate, and xBA, emerging as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise inconsistent Seattle offense.
He’s been especially dangerous against right-handed pitching. In that split. Canzone is hitting .273 with 11 home runs. Not to mention, 52% of his hits have gone for extra bases.
Pick: Dominic Canzone Home Run
