The Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets on July 4, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Braves are favored by -175 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +144 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Braves Prediction
- Mets vs Braves Pick: Braves -1.5
My Mets vs Braves best bet is on the Braves to cover the run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Braves Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +136 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -162 |
- Mets vs Braves moneyline: Mets +136, Braves -162
- Mets vs Braves over/under: 8.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Mets vs Braves spread: Mets +1.5 (-164), Braves -1.5 (+136)
Mets vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| Sean Manaea (LHP, NYM) | Stat | Chris Sale (LHP, ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 4.71 / 4.06 | ERA / xERA | 2.10 / 3.21 |
| 3.65 / 4.07 | FIP / xFIP | 2.56 / 2.96 |
| 15.1% | K-BB% | 23.6% |
| 39.1% | GB% | 45.8% |
| .320 | BABIP | .309 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 97 | Location+ | 107 |
Mets vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
Two lefties who get the job done in different ways are featured in this one.
The Mets have adopted Sean Manaea back into the rotation, and he's done fine for them. He's limited damage through his four starts since re-entering a traditional starter's role with a 4.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 21.8 K%, and a 5.7 BB%.
Manaea throws strikes with a funky release point, but his stuff isn't fooling guys left and right. That's the story with Manaea, mixing four-seamers, sweepers, and sinkers well and limiting hard contact, with just one homer surrendered in the last four outings. All of these pitches keep hitters off balance and generate plenty of contact, but mostly weak contact.
The superpower for Manaea is dominating lefties. He has a 38% K-Rate against those batters. His stuff is extremely hard to hit with the platoon advantage, which should help him handle Matt Olson and Drake Baldwin, at least. But it's a different story against righties, and that's a good spot to attack on the Atlanta side.
Betting on Manaea, you can feel pretty good about getting a handful of strikeouts. The pitch counts have trended up, and he's been at 95 in two of the last three. I think he should comfortably get to four with upside for 6-7 if the sweeper is really sweeping.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
I love the righties for Atlanta against Manaea. Switch-hitting Ozzie Albies has a lot more power from the right side of the plate and has a near .500 SLG% against lefties this year with six homers in fewer than 160 PAs — a very competitive home run rate.
The guy strikes out just 6% of the time against lefties this year, an absolutely ridiculous rate. This guy is a stud against lefties, and you should be looking to bet on some hits and base-running from him tonight.
The Braves will throw their unquestioned ace, Chris Sale. He hasn't been quite as dominant since May ended as he was in that month, but he remains here with an awesome 24.0 K-BB% and pristine 2.10 ERA.
The big man has 17 strikeouts and two walks in his last two; he's just been giving up hits (29 in his last four starts). But there's variance in hits allowed, as his BABIP is pretty random start-to-start.
He gets strikeouts, he limits walks, and he's one of the tougher guys in the league to take out of the park, with just six homers given up all year.
That last point needs to be accentuated. Chris Sale hasn't given up a home run since May 8th. That's seven starts and 41 innings since the last start in which he gave up a homer. The Mets are in a brutal spot here, and the Braves bullpen behind him is ridiculous.
Raisel Iglesias, as the closer, has a 1.27 ERA on the season with a 23% K-BB% and one homer given up. The setup man Robert Suarez is right there with Mason Miller for the title of best reliever in baseball this year with a 0.56 ERA. That's two runs given up in 32 innings.
It's lockdown city if the Braves can get to the eighth inning, and Sale very often takes them there by himself.
Mets vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
There seems to me to be no reason to bet on the Mets on this beautiful July 4th holiday. Sale + Suarez + Iglesias is an easy path to victory.
Of course, that assumes the Braves get to the 7th-8th with a lead, which is no guarantee in baseball. But I like the fact that the Braves have seen Manaea recently and are well accustomed to his stuff. The release point and deception metrics are the way that Manaea gets the job done, so familiarity helps the offense.
I like Ozzie Albies in this one, and I like the Braves generally to win this one clean.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+136)
