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Orioles vs. Reds MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet on Cincinnati as Live Underdog (Friday, July 29)

Orioles vs. Reds MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet on Cincinnati as Live Underdog (Friday, July 29) article feature image
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Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mike Minor.

  • The Reds take on the Orioles in Friday's MLB interleague matchup.
  • Mike Minor gets the nod on the mound for Cincinnati, which analyst Tony Sartori believes gives the host plenty of betting value.
  • Check out below why he's backing Minor and his teammates to win as live underdogs.

Orioles vs. Reds Odds

Orioles Odds -125
Reds Odds +105
Over/Under 9.5 (-115 / -105)
Time 6:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of this three-game interleague series with the Cincinnati Reds hosting the Baltimore Orioles in Friday’s Major League Baseball action.

The Orioles will look to continue to defy expectations, as they currently sit a game over .500, while the Reds are seeking any win they can get in an otherwise highly disappointing season.

As a short favorite, can Baltimore take care of business on the road or will Cincinnati pull off the home upset? Let’s take a look at this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles

While Baltimore continues to surprise everyone, this game could be a good opportunity to sell high. The club is coming off a successful four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays in which the it took three of the contests.

After a big series that drew them within three games of the Rays for third place in the AL East, this game could be a letdown spot. Additionally, Baltimore had to travel from Maryland to Ohio while preparing to play for the eighth consecutive day since the All-Star break.

A pitcher has yet to be announced for Baltimore, but whomever it is, it might fail to get much run support as it’s slated to go against left-hander Mike Minor. Since June 1, Baltimore ranks just 18th in the league in BA, 17th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+ in those categories.

Through 48 career plate appearances against Minor, this current Orioles roster possesses a mere .140 BA, .140 SLG and .182 wOBA overall.

Cincinnati Reds

Backing Minor is certainly a risky play, but I believe better days are ahead for the left-handed pitcher. While that’s not saying much as he is just 1-7 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.54 WHIP through nine starts, his metrics aren’t as awful as these surface-level stats indicate.

This season, Minor possesses a .347 xwOBA and .252 xBA. While those numbers still aren’t very good, they’re better than you would expect with a 6.65 ERA.

So, what is a better opportunity to get some confidence back and realize this potential positive regression than facing a team that Minor has had success against? Over his last four starts against Baltimore, Minor is 2-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 0.95 WHIP overall.

Additionally, Minor could get some good run support in this contest. Cincinnati has been a much better team at home, primarily in the hitting department.

Since June 1, the Reds rank 11th in the league in SLG, 14th in OPS, 14th in wOBA, third in wRC, and 11th in hard hit percentage when playing at home. Over their last 10 contests, the Reds are averaging 5.4 runs scored per game.

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Orioles-Reds Pick

There is a lot of risk in fading Baltimore without knowing its starting pitcher, but regardless of who it is, we will still be backing Cincinnati. Minor has dominated Baltimore in the past, and there might not be a single guy in the league who needs a good outing as badly as him.

Add in the fact Cincinnati has been hitting the ball well at home and Minor should get the run support. Baltimore is coming off three consecutive series against divisional opponents and now faces an easily overlooked opponent on the road with zero days rest, plus overnight travel.

In a game that should probably be a coin flip, give me Cincinnati on home field at plus money.

Pick: Cincinnati ML (+105) | Play up to (-110)

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