Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Picks, Predictions: Jordan Montgomery, Bruce Zimmermann in Vulnerable Spots (Tuesday, May 24)
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Montgomery
- The Yankees are big home favorites (-250 betting odds) tonight against the Orioles despite dropping three in a row.
- Jordan Montgomery takes the mound for New York and will be opposed by Baltimore's Bruce Zimmermann.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Orioles brought the lumber to the Bronx on Monday as they out-slugged the Bombers to take the first game of the series. Now they’ll turn to their de facto ace, Bruce Zimmermann.
He’s pitched like an ace thus far, as he enters with a 3.48 ERA, but there are multiple reasons the Baltimore faithful should be wary of Zimmermann in this outing.
However, the Yankees starter, Jordan Montgomery, does not have an outlook that is all that bright either, as the Orioles’ offense has heated up lately. They’ll come into this game having scored at least six runs in four of their last five ball games.
Montgomery has faced this Baltimore lineup twice this season and has thrown 10 quality innings. However, both of those starts came in Baltimore, which now plays very differently compared to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
O’s Bats To Stay Hot Against Montgomery
The Orioles have been lighting up the scoreboard of late, and it is due to a handful of hot hitters. Over the last week, Trey Mancini is hitting .393, Rougned Odor is hitting .320 and Ramon Urias is hitting .280. Coincidentally, they also have good numbers against Montgomery, but they’re joined by a few others as well.
Mancini and Anthony Santander have seen the ball especially well from Montgomery as they’re each hitting .338 and .359 off him, respectively. Urias and Odor have also made solid contact off Montgomery as they both have average exit velocities over 92 mph.
Montgomery’s raw numbers are excellent as he’ll enter this start with a 3.35 ERA through eight starts. However, when you look a bit deeper, you see some chinks in his armor. Most of his underlying stats are solid as he ranks in the top 30 percent of the league in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, walk rate and chase rate.
So why is his expected batting average against in the bottom 30 percent of qualified pitchers? The answer is in his stuff.
Montgomery relies on his sinker to produce a lot of ground balls. However, his sinker has been hit hard consistently this season. His sinker has an average exit velocity of 92 mph, which is also the same as his fastball.
When the hard stuff gets hit, he’ll turn to his curveball. His curveball may have a 46.6% whiff rate, but it is not a plus pitch. It’s in the bottom 20 percent of the league in terms of spin rate, and he utilizes it against righties. With the way this lineup is hitting, if he leaves one of the plate, it could be costly.
Zimmermann Due to Blow Up
Zimmermann’s season has been a pleasant surprise for an Orioles team that has been missing an ace. His ERA may be under 3.50, but his underlying stats tell a much different story.
Zimmermann is in the bottom 30 percent of qualified pitchers in every expected category, but the more alarming one is his average exit velocity against, which is in the bottom 16 percent of the majors.
He’s been very fortunate to keep runs off the board given the amount of hard contact against him, but if his last outing is any indication, his luck may have run out.
Zimmermann faced this same Yankees lineup just five days ago, and they got the best of him as he allowed five runs on seven hits. That start was the third time Zimmermann faced the Bombers, and now the fourth will come within a week of his worst performance of the season.
Lastly, Zimmermann is not only in a bad spot because of the way his numbers are trending and the familiarity of the hitters, but the Yankees can mash. They are second in the majors in wRC+ and lead the league in offensive runs above average.
They’re led by Aaron Judge, who’s playing at an MVP caliber level, and he also provided all the offense in the first game of the series by homering twice. It all points to the Yanks picking up where they left off five days ago.
Both of these offenses have been in a groove, and this second game of the series could be explosive as the arms on the mound have not been as good as advertised.
The Yankees have the potential to cover this total themselves as they should be eager to face Zimmermann. However, I expect a hot Orioles lineup to take advantage of the ballpark and push some runs across of their own.
Pick: Over 8