Padres vs Dodgers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 11
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
With Clayton Kershaw's expected start now pushed back, Monday's series opener between the Padres and Dodgers will feature a pair of relative unknowns and a high betting total of 9.5 runs.
Pedro Avila will start for San Diego looking to continue his surprising run of dominance. Avila owns a 2.19 ERA in 2023 across 37 innings, including 6 and 2/3 scoreless innings versus Philadelphia on Tuesday. He will face-off against Gavin Stone, who owns a 4.74 ERA in Triple A and 10.50 ERA with the Dodgers this season.
The Padres offense has continued to post better than league average results at the plate of late, and their disciplined process at the plate could be beneficial in this series opener versus a spot starter. They own a wRC+ of 104 over the last 30 days. Their BB/K ratio of 0.53 over that span ranks third in baseball, and they have struck out only 19.9% of the time.
With some key Padres starters sidelined Pedro Avila has received the chance to start some contests, and he has made a strong case for himself thus far in terms of actual runs allowed.
Luck has been on his side as well however and that was clear versus the Phillies Tuesday. Avila walked six batters, and allowed nine hard-hit balls out of 17 put in play (52.9% hard-hit rate). Batters held an average exit-velo of 93.3 in the matchup, which would rank 10th league wide this season. They chased just 20% of pitches outside the zone, which could prove to be a compelling stat moving forward as the league begins to figure him out.
Avila owns a Stuff+ rating of 78, and a Location+ mark of 98. He has pitched to an xERA of 3.89 this season, and an xFIP of 3.85.
Running away with the division affords the Dodgers to line up the pitching staff as desired for the postseason, and therefore the decision to start Gavin Stone Monday has been made.
The greatest key to their 13-game lead in the division has been dominant offensive play. Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 125, and on the season they now rank second to only the Braves. They own a BB/K of 0.48 versus right-handed pitchers, and should be able to force Avila to either throw strikes or put men on in this matchup.
Gavin Stone has struggled to a 7.51 xERA and 5.85 xFIP at the major league level this season. He owns a 4.74 ERA in 100.2 IP with Triple-A Oklahoma, a league which features a 5.74 ERA overall. He owns a Stuff+ mark of 89, and Location+ of 97.
Padres vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Seeing the Dodgers pick apart Avila would not be remotely surprising, and backing him to allow over 2.5 earned runs is my favorite play from this contest. Philadelphia wasn't chasing anything versus him, and were making quality contact. The Dodgers should be able to follow a similar process and will likely find better results.
Considering the state of the Padres staff, bullpen, and Avila's recent dominance on paper, he should receive a fairly long leash. That is great for this prop as we could even cash the over in a solid showing given enough innings of work.
Considering how Gavin Stone could also struggle in this matchup, betting the game total over at 9.5 is worthy of a play with any price better than -125 as well.