Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Offense Should Rule (Friday, August 5)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Juan Soto
- The Dodgers are favored at home in the opener of a series against the Padres tonight.
- Tony Gonsolin takes the mound for Los Angeles, while San Diego will counter with Sean Manaea.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Well, this is going to be fun. After acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader at the trade deadline, the revamped Padres will renew their captivating rivalry with the Dodgers in L.A. this weekend.
We have a fun pitching matchup to open the proceedings with Sean Manaea dueling Tony Gonsolin, so let’s get into how to bet this one.
Jury Still Out On Revamped Padres
The jury is very much still out on the Padres just two games into the Juan Soto era. He’s hit .375, but the team as a whole has had one highlight at home over Colorado in the form of a 9-1 blowout win and one lowlight, which came the next night in a 7-3 loss to one of the worst offenses in baseball away from Colorado.
It’s impossible to really rate this offense until they get a solid two or three weeks of play under their belts, but this is a team which struggled tremendously in the power department from both sides of the plate prior to bringing in Soto, Bell and Brandon Drury. To Soto’s credit, he had a double and a triple in Thursday’s loss, and judging by the season-long numbers we can expect the ISO to rise for the Padres.
As for Friday’s starter, Manaea has had an incredibly complicated season. He’s sporting a 4.25 ERA with a 3.97 xERA, struggling big time with walks, issuing one to 9.1% of batters. His strikeout numbers are still there, and nothing has really changed in terms of his bat-to-ball numbers. In fact, his expected batting average and expected wOBA on contact have improved greatly.
Despite all of that, the results still have not come for Manaea — and it’s been due to the fact that he can’t prevent opposing teams from hitting the ball deep. He gave up at least one homer in each of the five starts he made in the month of July, surrendering seven in total. That brought his ERA to 5.40 for the month.
Regression Showing From Gonsolin?
Speaking of bad months, let’s talk about Gonsolin. The Dodgers hurler looked like he was legitimately one of the best pitchers in baseball before laying an egg in his last three starts, finishing July with a 4.40 ERA. He’s now allowed exactly one home run in each of his last five starts, and one troubling number would be that he’s walked five in his last three outings.
For the entire season, Gonsolin has been a guy who has rocked a walk rate which has been firmly above-average with a low xwOBA on contact, low hard-hit rate and low barrel rate. All of those metrics are still low and better than the league average, but they’re slowly backing their way out of the elite conversation.
There’s nothing to be worried about offensively for the Dodgers, though. They’re still second in baseball over the last 30 days with a 135 wRC+, dominating everywhere with a second-ranked .201 ISO, very low 19.1% strikeout rate and elite 9.5% walk rate. They’ve brought up Miguel Vargas and James Outman from Triple-A, too, who have provided an extra shot in the arm.
Both of these pitchers have fallen on hard times. While, in a vacuum, I have far more faith in Gonsolin, the last few outings have led many to believe that regression is starting to set in for a guy who has never really been stretched out the way he’s been stretched out this season.
I have to back both of these offenses. While the Dodgers have continued to be elite and will face a middling pitcher, the Padres have already shown improvements at the plate and even in defeat on Thursday got four hits out of Soto and Bell.
I think we’ll be treated to a slugfest in L.A. and a very entertaining game.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)