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Padres vs. Guardians Odds & Picks: Why to Bet Tuesday’s Over

Padres vs. Guardians Odds & Picks: Why to Bet Tuesday’s Over article feature image
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Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado

  • The Guardians are home underdogs on Tuesday against the Padres.
  • With Mike Clevinger returning after a lengthy absence, is there value on the Padres?
  • D.J. James breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Padres vs. Guardians Odds

Padres Odds -140
Guardians Odds +120
Over/Under 8
Time 6:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Mike Clevinger makes his 2022 debut and first regular season appearance since 2020 for the San Diego Padres. He will duel with Zach Plesac and the Cleveland Guardians. Plesac has been pretty lucky with his 3.80 ERA. His xERA stands at 5.85, and his peripherals have been atrocious, much like last season.

Both of these teams have solid bullpens, but given the expectations from both of these starters and each team’s ability to hit right handers, betting over the total of 7.5 has value.

Can Clevinger Bounce Back for the Padres?

Clevinger may be a top-of-the-rotation arm, but who knows how he will bounce back after being sidelined for an entire season. He only threw 41 2/3 innings in 2020, so will he be the same performer the Padres expected? For one, his average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit percentage did not rank among the top pitchers in the MLB since 2019.

He predominantly utilizes a mixture of four-seamers, sliders, and curveballs. Against righties who throw these three pitches, the Guardians have had great expected success. They have five batters over .400 xwOBA and four others over .340. This says they should excel against Clevinger’s arsenal.

The bullpen is a bit shorthanded with Pierce Johnson sidelined on the injured list. That said, they still have plenty of arms who can bear the brunt of a long bullpen day after Clevinger inevitably takes an early exit.

Since he will likely struggle with this matchup, and the Padres will limit his pitching, the bullpen will have a long day. After all, in his last rehabilitation start, he only logged 67 pitches. Look for that count to be similar in this game. If he is having trouble, that could be only three or four innings.

Luis García, Steven Wilson, Pedro Avila, and Taylor Rogers are San Diego’s most reliable options. Rogers, Ray Kerr, and Tim Hill are the only lefties for the Padres, and they may present mismatches. Hill has only struck out one hitter in five innings pitched, which would not pair well with a contact-heavy team in Cleveland.

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Can Plesac Carry the Guardians?

On the other hand, Plesac is also not going to fare well in this outing. He is averaging an allowed 92 MPH Exit Velocity and 52.7% Hard Hit percentage. More than half of the time he is giving up a hard-hit ball. Even though the Padres rank 22nd in Hard-Hit rate, facing Plesac will negate that.

Plesac also does not walk anyone (4.4%). The Padres rank in the middle of the pack in strikeouts and toward the bottom of the league in Chase Rate. This means they should exploit Plesac’s accuracy. Finally, the Padres have seven hitters over .330 xwOBA against righties this season. They have enough depth throughout their lineup to handle Plesac easily.

The Guardians do have a strong collective xFIP. They have multiple arms who can handle the duties once Plesac exits, but this could stretch the ‘pen thin, much like the Padres. Even if they have the arms to carry the brunt of a short outing for their starter, it truly depends on who is entering the game. About half of their bullpen, including Emmanuel Clase, has struggled this season.

Padres-Guardians Pick

Don’t expect either of these starters to put up a strong performance against his respective opponent. Both the Padres and Guardians can hit righties and boast an above average team wRC+ when facing this side of the pitching rubber. Since both lineups look potent in comparison, each starter should have a short outing.

Both teams also could have strapped bullpens if they have to dig deep. Look for the opponent to take advantage when this happens.

The total at 7.5 (-110) is too low, and there is value up to 8 (-110).

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) | play to 8 (-110)

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