The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs on June 27, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -164 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cubs are +138 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Cubs vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction
- Cubs vs Brewers Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+138)
Our Cubs vs Brewers best bet is on Chicago to win as underdogs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Brewers Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -110o / -110u | +138 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -110o / -110u | -164 |
- Cubs vs Brewers moneyline: Cubs +138, Brewers -164
- Cubs vs Brewers over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Cubs vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+125), Cubs +1.5 (-150)
Cubs vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (CHC) | Stat | LHP Kyle Harrison (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 8-1 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 6.09/4.85 | ERA / xERA | 2.50/3.20 |
| 3.86/4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 3.05/3.14 |
| 10.3% | K-BB% | 23.8% |
| 51.1% | GB% | 34.8% |
| .350 | BABIP | .289 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 100 | Location+ | 115 |
Cubs vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
The NL Central rivalry heats up in Milwaukee as the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers host the second-place Chicago Cubs for the second matchup of their three-game weekend set.
Milwaukee captured the series opener with a convincing 6-2 victory on Friday night, marking their fifth consecutive win.
That contest was highlighted by a historic moment from Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski, who dialed up a blazing 105.5 mph fastball—tying for the third-fastest pitch recorded since tracking technology debuted in 2008—to help secure his eighth win in nine decisions.
With that result, Milwaukee improves to 50-29 overall and an impressive 26-15 at American Farm Field, while further extending their absolute dominance over Chicago this year with a perfect 4-0 head-to-head record.
A key ingredient to the Brewers' success has been keeping the ball in the yard, boasting a stellar 27-8 record in contests where they do not surrender a home run.
On the flip side, the Cubs drop to 44-38 overall and an even 21-21 on the highway. Despite their recent struggles against Milwaukee, Chicago features an elite offense capable of sustaining rallies, currently ranking third in the major leagues with a stellar .336 team on-base percentage.
However, the pitching matchup on Saturday heavily favors the home team on paper. The Brewers turn to ace Kyle Harrison, who owns a spectacular 8-1 record with a .250 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and 87 strikeouts.
Harrison utterly dismantled the North Siders in his previous outing against them this season, firing seven innings of two-hit ball while racking up 11 strikeouts.
The Cubs will counter by debuting their newly acquired left-hander, David Peterson, who was traded to Chicago on Thursday.
Peterson carries a rocky 3-6 record, 6.09 ERA, and 1.65 WHIP from his previous club, but the change of scenery offers a fresh slate as he prepares to make his highly anticipated first start in a Cubs uniform.
Cubs vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
Even though the surface-level metrics point squarely toward Milwaukee, the betting value lies entirely with the visiting underdogs.
This matchup sets up as a textbook application of the "Contrarian Betting Against Good Team" system developed by betting expert Evan Abrams. This specific strategy focuses on fading elite teams holding a 60% or better win percentage when the public betting action is heavily lopsided, leaving the underdog with 35% or less of the market backing.
The system deliberately targets road underdogs who are mired in minor losing streaks of one to three games during the regular season.
The underlying philosophy is that the betting market frequently overprices elite clubs, particularly when they play in front of their home crowd, which inherently inflates the price and creates substantial long-term value on the contrarian visitors.
While a betting system like this naturally yields a lower outright win rate, the significant plus-money payouts more than compensate for it, generating a highly profitable return on investment over time.
With the line sitting at an inflated price due to Harrison's previous dominance and Peterson's high ERA, the market has overadjusted.
Back the Chicago Cubs moneyline at +138 to break the streak.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+138)
