Padres vs. Mariners MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Play This Julio Rodriguez Prop (Wednesday, September 14)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Rodriguez
Padres vs. Mariners Odds
| Padres Odds | +130 |
| Mariners Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Wild-card hopefuls San Diego and Seattle will meet again Wednesday afternoon for the final of a two-game interleague set.
The Padres claimed an important 2-0 victory Tuesday behind an excellent performance from Yu Darvish, and remain two games up on the Brewers for the final playoff berth out of the NL.
Seattle enter comfortably holding on to the second wild-card spot in the AL, sitting five games up on the Orioles entering play today.
The Mariners will have a strong chance to move one stop closer to ending North American sports' longest playoff drought with Luis Castillo on the mound Wednesday in a matchup against Mike Clevinger.
Castillo may continue a run of dominance, but may we see another Mariners star shine Wednesday?
Clevinger Struggling For San Diego
Clevinger's season has certainly become somewhat of a disappointment, as a guy who was supposed to be a high point on the Padres' roster has managed an ERA of 4.13 in 93 2/3 innings.
Worse yet is the fact that Clevinger has faltered down the stretch for a Padres team right in the mix, with an ERA of 4.75 post-All-Star break, and a 9.72 ERA in two starts so far in September.
Both of those September outings have come against a ridiculously talented Dodgers team, but regardless, Clevinger holds well below league average marks in nearly every notable public metric, and has continued to find worse results as the season has wore along.
Clevinger holds a poor QOPA of 3.90 altogether this season, a mark which has also dipped since the beginning of August.
Throughout a relatively large sample size of 55 innings, Clevinger has pitched to worse results on the road this season as well, with an ERA of 4.55, compared to a mark of 3.52 at home.
Clevinger has posted horrific marks facing lineups for a third time through in any contest, and with San Diego holding a relatively rested bullpen, I think we will likely see an early departure in this contest at the first sign of a struggle.
Oddsmakers seem to be expecting the same, as Clevinger sits with a total outs record line of just 15.5, with juice to the under at -125.
Rodriguez a Star For Seattle
Julio Rodriguez's excellent play down the stretch has essentially ended any race for the AL ROY, and the ultra-talented 21-year-old could be well situated to do damage in this contest.
Rodriguez has hit to an OPS of 1.165 throughout 50 PAs in the month of September, with a ridiculous SLG of .705.
To look toward a larger sample, Rodriguez has managed an .873 OPS and .529 SLG throughout 151 PAs since the All-Star break, which are nearly identical to his excellent season long splits at home.
Rodriguez has also fared very well in righty-righty matchups this season, as his .500 SLG rate is actually notably above his mark against left-handed pitching, and he will begin this contest pitted against a relatively soft righty in Clevinger.
Padres-Mariners Pick
Should Rodriguez take the field for this one I believe he is in an excellent matchup to continue his absolute tear to start September.
Rodriguez has all the talent in the world, and is clearly playing with a ton of confidence as he looks to help snap the Mariners' absurd run of seasons ending without a playoff berth.
At -105 I like a play on Rodriguez to manage over 1.5 bases in the contest, and would play that down to -110.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases -105
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