BlackJack’s Favorite Tuesday MLB Bet: Padres vs. Marlins an Ideal Setup for Value

Today we have some interesting matchups across the baseball world. Dodgers-Philles, Rays-Yankees, Braves-Brewers … but those are not the games that have my attention.

Instead, the game I'm eyeing is the San Diego Padres visiting the Miami Marlins.

Betting odds: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins

Probable starters: Logan Allen (2-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. Jordan Yamamoto (3-0, 1.24 ERA)

• Padres odds: -123
• Marlins odds: +112
• Over/under: 8
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Marlins rookie Jordan Yamamoto (3-0, 1.24 ERA) is on the hill for the Marlins tonight. Yamamoto has been outstanding this season, giving up a total of four earned runs in five starts. He has also struck out 30 batters over 29 innings pitched thus far in 2019.

The second part of this equation is that the Marlins have a poor offense and do not exactly light the scoreboard on fire. When you combine those two factors, you get a perfect setup for a profitable bet.

Take the first five innings under in this one. The full game total is 8, but then you have to deal with suspect bullpens. Limit yourself to a high-level starter in Yamamoto and a poor Marlins offense.

This should equate to Miami not surrendering runs and also not scoring them. The first five total is four runs, which is enough for me to ride.

The Pick: First 5 Innings (Under 4)