Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value Sitting on Philadelphia (Tuesday, May 17)
Ralph Freso/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper.
Padres vs. Phillies Odds
|Time||6:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The red-hot San Diego Padres stroll into Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday winners in six of their last 10 games.
However, the Philadelphia Phillies have appeared to hit their stride as they also enter winning six of their previous 10 outings, including taking three of four from the Los Angeles Dodgers in their most recent series.
On the mound for the Padres will be Mike Clevinger, who has looked solid through his first two starts after missing almost two seasons. He’ll be opposed by Zach Eflin, who is making his return off a stint on the COVID-19 list.
If Eflin returns to the form we saw prior to his absence, he might be in line to cool off the San Diego bats as he’s overdue for a solid outing.
San Diego Padres
San Diego has gotten off to a tremendous start, especially when you consider the level of competition it has in the NL West. The keys to the Padres’ solid beginning have been consistent starting pitching and stars carrying the offensive load.
Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer have been nearly the entire offense for the Padres thus far. They’ll enter this matchup, hitting .350 and .359, respectively. The duo has accounted for 47 of the team’s 155 RBIs. However, if Elfin can navigate those two players, he should be in good shape as they’re the only two of three hitters with averages more than .237 this season.
Prior to his Injured List stint, Eflin was quietly one of the more effective pitchers in the league. His 4.50 ERA might not show it, but his underlying metrics are among some of the best in the majors.
He’ll enter this start in the top five percent of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed. Eflin has shown excellent command of his diverse arsenal and made the majority of batters hit his pitch as mistakes have been few and far between.
His walk rate is in the top 20 percent of qualified pitchers, plus his chase rate is in the top 40 percent this season.
While it’s great to see Mike Clevinger back on the mound, it has not been all that sunny for Sunshine. Through his first two starts, Clevinger has had some issues with his command as he worked a lot of deep counts given out multiple free passes. In fact, he’s walked five total batters while not getting out of the fifth inning in either of his outings.
The Phillies are not a team that walks all that often, but they have two men in the top 60 batters in the league in walk rate via Kyle Schwarber, and Rhys Hoskins.
They have been staples near the top of the Philadelphia order, so if they can get on in front of Harper, Clevinger will be in trouble early on.
The reigning NL MVP has been spearheading the Phillies’ recent charge as, over the last week, Harper has hit .600 with three homers and eight RBIs. That is all while playing with a slightly torn UCL in his left elbow.
Lefties have given Clevinger the most trouble throughout his career, as his FIP against them is 4.08 compared to 3.07 against righties, and they are also hitting 23 points higher.
The Phillies are looking like a team to ride, as not only are they heating up, but their lineup is in a great position to keep on mashing in their home park.
On the other hand, Eflin has given hitters fits, but hasn’t quite seen results thus far. If he can avoid Machado and Hosmer, he should be effective deep into this game and give the struggling Phillies bullpen as little work as possible.
Pick: Philadelphia ML (-115 | Play to -125)