The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 4, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Cubs are favored by -158 on the moneyline and by 8 on the run line. The Cardinals are +134 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction
- Cardinals vs Cubs Pick: Over 8 Total Runs (-105)
My Cardinals vs Cubs best bet is on game totals. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Cubs Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 8 -110o / -110u | +134 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -110o / -110u | -158 |
- Cardinals vs Cubs moneyline: Cardinals +134, Cubs -158
- Cardinals vs Cubs over/under: 8 (-110 / -110)
- Cardinals vs Cubs spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-156), Cubs -1.5 (+130)
Cardinals vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| RHP Kyle Leahy (STL) | Stat | LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | W-L | 5-6 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.09 / 5.76 | ERA / xERA | 4.30 / 3.65 |
| 4.19 / 4.28 | FIP / xFIP | 4.68 / 3.94 |
| 10.1% | K-BB% | 17.4% |
| 43.5% | GB% | 37.8% |
| .324 | BABIP | .244 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 105 | Location+ | 109 |
Cardinals vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
St. Louis is fresh off a dominant win yesterday. They beat the Cubs 17-1, with 16 runs in the first six innings. They tightened the gap between themselves and Chicago to 1 1/2 games, but still trail the Brewers by 7 1/2 games.
This season is one to remember for Cardinals fans. They entered the season as a likely bottom-feeder and exceeded expectations throughout the first half. Their 46-39 record is a testament to their talent and, more importantly, their development.
Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera have built on strong 2025 campaigns, while Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, and Riley O'Brien are experiencing star-level breakouts.
Even if the Cardinals make the postseason, they are unlikely to contend due to their poor starting rotation. However, this season is a massive success, regardless of their second-half record.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Unfortunately, the Cubs were on the opposing end of last night's beatdown. They threw in the white flag fairly early, but still should not feel much shame. They have won 15 of their past 20 games and are 8-2 in their past 10 games.
This team is coming together, yet they still own uncorked weapons. Offseason signee Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner are dormant this season. Both hold a wRC+ below 100 (average).
Luckily, there is a full second half of baseball to be played, and these veteran infielders are no strangers to slumps.
There is more pressure on Bregman due to this being his first season in Chicago (along with his massive contract), but in an offense that is firing everywhere else, it would be difficult not to catch a little fire himself.
Speaking of hot streaks, no one has "caught fire" quite like Dansby Swanson. He has an absurd stretch of production in recent weeks.
Swanson is slashing .352/.379/.944 since June 17. He has nine HR, 16 runs, 29 RBI, and four SB in this span, with three multi-HR games. He has hit so well that his 68 wRC+ entering this stretch jumped to 100 as of today.
The Cubs have the talent to overtake Milwaukee for the NL Central crown this season, but their lack of pitching talent and depth will keep them quiet in the playoffs.
Cardinals vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
Did the Cardinals use up all of their runs in the 17-1 beatdown over Chicago last night? Let us hope not as we take another over in this rivalry weekend.
St. Louis will have Kyle Leahy on the mound tonight. While his 3.56 ERA since 2025 looks excellent, his peripherals are poor this season.
His 4.09 ERA is backed by a 5.76 xERA, 4.28 xFIP, and 4.53 SIERA. He allows a ton of hard contact and does not earn enough strikeouts relative to walks (10.1% K-BB) to mitigate it across a full season.
The Cubs can be the piper that comes calling. They only scored once yesterday, but have a league-best 128 wRC+ in the past month.
Their offense is better against lefties (118 wRC+) than righties (108 wRC+) this season, yet that is not a concern when a pitcher like Leahy is on the mound.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have the league's ninth-best offense in the past 30 days (116 wRC+). St. Louis is average against both lefties and righties in 2026, with no notable difference in splits.
Cubs' starter Shota Imanaga has been worse at home than on the road this season. His .317 wOBA allowed and 15.6% K-BB at home are well off his .295 wOBA allowed and 20.4% K-BB away.
Both bullpens are fresh today, but the Cubs' relievers are among the worst in the league following several injuries, including star closer Daniel Palencia and offseason addition Phil Maton.
Pick: Over 8 Total Runs (-105)
