The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 29, 2026. First pitch from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Phillies are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Dodgers are -100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction
- Phillies vs Dodgers Pick: Phillies ML (+100, FanDuel)
My Phillies vs Dodgers best bet is on Philadelphia to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 102o / -124u | +100 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8.5 102o / -124u | -118 |
- Phillies vs Dodgers moneyline: Phillies -100, Dodgers -118
- Phillies vs Dodgers over/under: 8.5 (-102o / -124u)
- Phillies vs Dodgers spread: Phillies -1.5 (+162), Dodgers +1.5 (-196)
Phillies vs Dodgers Polymarket MLB Odds
Phillies vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
| Zack Wheeler | Stat | Justin Wrobleski |
|---|---|---|
| 27-27 | W-L | 34-20 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 1.67 / 3.15 | ERA / xERA | 3.07 / 4.08 |
| 2.22 / 2.99 | FIP / xFIP | 3.52 / 4.80 |
| 19.9 | K-BB% | 7.5 |
| 46.9 | GB% | 36.5 |
| .232 | BABIP | .254 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 108 | Location+ | 111 |
Phillies vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: The Old Zack Wheeler Is Back
It didn't take very long for Zack Wheeler to recover from thoracic outlet syndrome, an ailment that has cost many pitchers their careers. After a so-so first start against the Braves back in April, where Wheeler allowed two runs over five innings with a 6:3 K ratio, he's begun to build back his old form with a 1.38 ERA across 32 2/3 innings this month.
The right-hander may not be racking up punchouts like he was last year, but he now owns a respectable 25.5% strikeout rate to go along with another sub-6% walk rate. His performance on contact hasn't been quite as elite as in the past, but he's still coming in below league average with a .230 Expected Batting Average and .354 Expected Slugging Percentage.
The biggest key for Wheeler this season has been an increase in ground balls. He was a firm fly-ball pitcher for the last three years, something that comes along with being a strikeout artist, but as his stuff has declined a bit in 2026 following the injury, he's turned around and posted a 46.9% ground-ball rate — up five points from last season and nearly three points above league average.
Of course, the Phillies' infield ranks just 23rd in Outs Above Average, but this is a key turnaround for Wheeler when you consider he's been allowing a lot of pulled balls in the air when they haven't come back on the ground. This will help him keep the ball in the yard with greater success.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: A House Built on Sand
Well, regression has certainly begun to hit Justin Wrobleski. He pitched to an incredible 0.69 ERA in April, but in his past three outings he's allowed 14 runs across 19 2/3 innings. It's not like walks and home runs have been the main issue, either. He's just getting shelled out there.
Wrobleski's strikeout rate is now down to just 13.7%, and it's easy to see why with all the success teams are having against him. They're swinging the bat, and they're whiffing at the second-lowest rate against any pitcher.
His Expected Slugging Percentage isn't a nightmare — it's just 10 points above league average — but his xBA sits in the 23rd percentile at .265.
This suggests there should be no end in sight to the regression, considering the lefty is allowing just a .227 average. On top of that, he's stranding over 75% of his runners, which is five points higher than his career average.
The contact against Wrobleski is coming back through the air at a high 63.3% clip, and he's running a 32.2% fly-ball rate, which is eight points above league average. The benefit is that he's giving up a bunch of balls straight up the middle or to the opposite field, which will help him prevent homers, but a barrage of hits usually sends the youngster to the shower.
Phillies vs Dodgers Pick, Betting Analysis
The Phillies rank just 23rd in OPS versus fly-ball pitchers, and they're hitting just .223 in that split, which ranks even worse at 26th. This isn't a great matchup, as bad as Wrobleski is, considering the team's hitting .228 for the year and just .209 over the last two weeks.
They've certainly got some power, ranking eighth in Isolated Power over that span, and they're also seventh in home run-to-fly-ball ratio. That puts us in an interesting position, particularly with the wind blowing out to center field at Dodger Stadium.
Can we trust a team this bereft of hits to find enough offense to make Wrobleski pay? Can they hit one or two well-timed home runs?
You'd think so, but the splits against fly-ball pitchers are pretty damning. The Brewers and Braves are the only two teams to really abuse Wrobleski, and they both hit fly-ballers better.
I'm still not a fan of Wrobleski here, however, and I want to bet on continued regression. The Dodgers may be smoking hot at the plate, but they've been surprisingly bad against ground-ball pitchers, and Wheeler has been surprisingly good.
Pick: Phillies ML (+100, FanDuel) | Play to -110
