The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 15, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction
- Phillies vs Dodgers picks: Over 8.5 (-102) | Play to -115
My Phillies vs Dodgers best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -125 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ranger Suárez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Emmet Sheehan (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-6 | W-L | 6-3 |
| 4.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 2.77/2.98 | ERA /xERA | 3.32/3.51 |
| 2.96/3.62 | FIP / xFIP | 3.31/3.59 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 18.0% | K-BB% | 20.7% |
| 45.9% | GB% | 31.4% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 113 | Location+ | 104 |
Kenny Ducey’s Phillies vs Dodgers Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Suarez Wrapping Up Excellent Season
Ranger Suarez has had an overall exceptional season, and if there were any concerns that the lefty was headed for a poor finish, he's done well to quiet those concerns down. Suarez yielded 11 earned runs between two rocky starts in mid-August, only to surrender just three in his next five outings to bring his ERA down to 2.77 entering play on Monday.
Suarez did it against the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets, too, and while he walked five over 12 frames he cushioned the blow by allowing just seven hits and striking out 16.
The strikeout gains are legitimate, albeit small in nature. Suarez has been using his cutter a lot more to generate some much-needed whiffs when he hasn't been able to rely on the changeup. In all, he's posted a 24% strikeout rate, which would be his best full season at this level.
Suarez also continues to pitch towards ground balls, though he's done so less this season, which has brought his Expected Batting Average down to .227. There hasn't been any downside, either, with the southpaw sporting a .348 Expected Slugging — the second-best of his career.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Home, Sweet Home for Sheehan
Young Emmet Sheehan sure looks like the real deal as well. He bounced back from a poor start in Colorado to throw seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts at the end of August. He's now posted a 2.31 ERA in 11 2/3 innings, totaling 15 strikeouts to just three walks in September.
Unlike Suarez, Sheehan is a born strikeout pitcher. He's wearing a borderline-elite 28.6% strikeout rate with 90th-percentile or better marks in the chase and whiff columns. Unfortunately, he seems to be the prototypical power pitcher that's drawn my ire as a handicapper, giving up a ton of well-hit fly balls when he's not missing bats, but at least his walk rate is at a reasonable 7.9%.
Pitching at home, and not in Philly, is going to work wonders for the rookie, though it's not as if this is an easy matchup. The Phillies are the best offense in baseball over the last two weeks, with a robust .221 Isolated Power. In contrast, the Dodgers have struck out in just 17.9% of their plate appearances, but their ISO stands at a weaker .166.
Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's pretty hard for me to hate either one of these pitchers, but it should be said that Sheehan stands as a liability here for the home side. Philly isn't striking out a ton, and when the ball comes back into play, very bad things happen.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have struggled a bit with lefties this season and haven't looked sharp offensively overall. Still, as they look to work many of their returning bats into postseason shape, they've quickly caught fire with 24 runs in San Francisco over the weekend.
This leads me to believe we'll see some runs here. It's hard for me to project either man to navigate these talented offenses without many swings and misses comfortably, and the total is suspiciously high.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-102) | Play to -115
Moneyline
I'm making no move on the Moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also making no bet on the Spread
Over/Under
I'm taking Over 8.5
Phillies vs Dodgers Betting Trends
