The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 17, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction
- Phillies vs Dodgers pick: Under 8 (-115) | Play to Under 7.5 (+100)
My Phillies vs Dodgers best bet is on the under for this game's total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +125 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -150 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | LHP Blake Snell (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-6 | W-L | 4-4 |
| 4.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.03 / 3.39 | ERA / xERA | 2.79 / 3.56 |
| 2.91 / 3.32 | FIP / xFIP | 3.11 / 3.32 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.39 |
| 20.4 | K-BB% | 15.5 |
| 42.9 | GB% | 46.7 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 111 | Location+ | 111 |
Kenny Ducey’s Phillies vs Dodgers Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Luzardo On a Roll
We're witnessing many pitchers around the league slow down as the season comes to an end, but you can't say that about Jesus Luzardo. The Phillies left-hander has turned in his two best months of the season since August started, posting a 3.33 ERA and 2.61 FIP over that span with a strikeout rate that has eclipsed the magic number of 30%.
The lefty is generating whiffs like they're going out of style. As if that wasn't good enough, his Expected Batting Average was a season-best .212 last month and has come down to .189 so far in September with an xSLG south of .330.
There's simply not much you can argue about anymore. Luzardo is a legit front-line starter once again.
I was incredibly skeptical early in his career, but he's re-established himself as a high-strikeout arm and has shaken off some of the issues he's had when it comes to limiting the damage on contact. He'd previously been a prime home run candidate, but now it's a lot harder to find a way through the veteran.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Tough Matchup for Snell
The Dodgers have been getting right at the plate, but their pitching has let them down. The bullpen has allowed seven runs in 11 innings across the first two games of this series, and that's not even factoring out Emmet Sheehan, who operated brilliantly behind an opener on Monday.
That will put the pressure squarely on Blake Snell's shoulders here, and he'll do his best to navigate a potent Phillies offense, which has been the hottest in baseball over the last two weeks.
Snell will be at an immediate disadvantage here on account of Philly's swollen .236 Isolated Power and 9.7% walk rate over that same span, and it's not as if its 22.4% strikeout rate is all that bad either. Snell has turned in another lousy 11.2% walk rate this season and continues to be liable on contact with a .245 xBA against him this season.
The upside of the left-hander here is that he's become much more of a ground-ball pitcher in his limited nine-start sample this season, and his strikeout rate is quickly rising with a couple of gems in his past three starts.
Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Phillies do struggle more against ground-ball pitchers, and while I don't think nine starts are enough to say much about Snell confidently, it would certainly make sense for the lefty to tailor his game that way after working in some pitcher-friendly parks the last few years.
He's going to be up against a massive challenge with the Phillies doing it all at the plate. Still, if he can reduce their menacing power, he may have a chance here with Philly struggling with punchouts a bit and looking a little impatient in this series with 10 walks across 19 innings.
On the opposite end of the stick, you've got an utterly dominant version of Luzardo, and a Dodgers offense which has been good, yet a bit pedestrian, in the last 14 days with waning power numbers and a .272 average.
I'm no fan of these bullpens at the moment, but we've seen enough of a sample over the last couple of months to make a call on this game featuring few runs.
Pick: Under 8 (-115) | Play to Under 7.5 (+100, bet365)
Phillies vs Dodgers Betting Trends
