The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 25, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Phillies begin a weekday series in Queens as -125 road favorites, while the Mets enter as +105 underdogs at home.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Mets Prediction
- Phillies vs Mets pick: Phillies ML (play to -140)
My Phillies vs Mets best bet is on Philadelphia moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -105o / -115u | -125 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -105o / -115u | +105 |
Phillies vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-4 | W-L | 7-5 |
| 4.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 2.46/3.08 | ERA /xERA | 2.58/3.88 |
| 2.63/2.82 | FIP / xFIP | 4.08/4.31 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 20.6% | K-BB% | 11.2% |
| 56.4% | GB% | 46.5% |
| 114 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 99 | Location+ | 95 |
Sean Paul’s Phillies vs Mets Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Rotation Anchored by Sanchez
With Zack Wheeler’s season-ending surgery, it’s now on Cristopher Sanchez to anchor the Phillies' rotation. I feel as if the breakout star is more than up to the task, as he boasts a 2.46 ERA with a career-best 9.49 K/9. Plus, his 3.08 FIP and 2.63 xERA are strong indicators of no incoming regression.
The Mets could struggle to solve Sanchez, as he flashes the strikeout stuff with a 95th percentile ranking in ground-ball rate. He's also maintained his strong walk rate from last year, issuing 2.18 BB/9 in both seasons. He's boosted his K/9 by over two strikeouts per nine, while keeping his walk rate the same.
The fact that Sanchez hasn't sacrificed his command to boost his strikeouts speaks to how dominant of a hurler he is.
Meanwhile, the Phillies' bats have dominated in August, posting a 122 wRC+ — the fourth best in MLB. They are crushing the ball out of the park, ranking fourth with 34 homers and second with a .207 ISO. Neither is above the figure the Mets have this month, but it's nothing to sneeze at.
The key to the Phillies' offense is getting Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner to perform like studs at the same time. It always feels like one or two is hot and the other can't buy a hit. It's made a world of difference for each of the trio to have at least a 120 wRC+ in August.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Senga's Regression Concerns
I’ve been a proponent of fading Mets starter Kodai Senga, who’s been eyeing down regression for months. While Senga still has a 2.58 ERA, he could be in store for more regression — as he has a 3.88 xERA and 4.08 FIP.
Since returning from the Injured List, Senga has a 5.23 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP in 30 innings. Perhaps the most concerning is that Senga has only tallied 29 strikeouts in that time.
It’s very unlike Senga to record fewer than a strikeout per nine, but he hasn’t been very sharp, and his put-away pitches are easier to take since he’s having issues commanding his stuff.
Scoring hasn't been the issue for the Mets. Instead, the issue lies in a lack of consistent innings from the starter and their new-look bullpen cratering in the biggest moments.
New York leads the sport with a 138 wRC+ in August, while cracking an MLB-best 39 homers and a .225 ISO.
And as we learned last month, the offense lives and dies with Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Juan Soto. In July, all three struggled. In August, each of the three has at least five homers with a 150 wRC+.
However, will the Mets have the right attack to beat Sanchez? I'm skeptical they can crack Sanchez, as they hit the ball on the ground 42.6% of the time. They have a pristine 20% strikeout rate in August, but Sanchez is more than just a strikeout guy, as I touched on.
On the flip side, Senga, who I'm fading here, can get the Phillies to chase since they walk just 6.6% of the time. If he stays close enough to the zone, the Phillies will aim to put the ball in play.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
To me, this one boils down to one factor. Both offenses are performing at elite levels, but both have bullpen issues, leading to elite closers in Jhoan Duran for the Phillies and Edwin Diaz for the Mets. However, the Phillies hold the clear starter advantage. Sanchez would be in the CY Young mix if it weren't for Paul Skenes.
The Phillies have won six of Sanchez's past nine outings. He's also pitched at least six innings in 14 consecutive outings, which also limits how much the Phillies bullpen has to be relied upon. That won't be the case for Senga, who hasn't finished six full innings in seven straight outings.
I love backing Sanchez in general and have zero faith in Senga. So, backing the Phillies makes sense here, at a solid price.
Pick: Phillies ML (-125, Fanatics; play to -140)
Phillies vs Mets Betting Trends
